Wisconsin

The Badgers' most pressing need wasn't subtle after a 4-8 collapse: find a quarterback who could actually move the ball. Enter Colton Joseph, the Old Dominion transfer whose 155.3 PPA arrival represents the portal's biggest individual impact on a Wisconsin roster that welcomed 33 newcomers while watching 25 depart. The offense grades out 90th nationally at -2.1 points per game — a stark contrast to the defense's respectable 42nd ranking at +1.8. Joseph inherits an offense with just 21% target share returning and zero quarterback continuity, but his dual-threat skill set should energize a ground game that desperately needs a catalyst. Wisconsin also added Oklahoma State receiver Shamar Rigby (19.2 PPA) and Bowling Green tight end Jacob Harris (13.8 PPA) to provide the new signal-caller with experienced targets.

JP+ projects 5.5 wins for Wisconsin, well under most market expectations, with the gap driven primarily by defensive uncertainty despite last year's solid unit. The Badgers lost significant production in coverage and along the edge, creating structural instability that could derail what should be an improved offense. Early tests loom large — particularly that September road trip to Penn State — as Wisconsin needs signature victories to demonstrate genuine progress. If Joseph can consistently threaten defenses both passing and rushing while the defense maintains its effectiveness despite personnel turnover, eight wins remain possible. If the defensive regression proves severe or the offensive line fails to protect Joseph, another disappointing season beckons.