Futures
Conference title and CFP probabilities from 50,000 simulated seasons using JP+ season-arc projections.
61.0%ATS spread picks· blind holdout · 62.4% in-sample·+31.6%ROI on win totalsWin totals ROI·2022–2025 backtest
Conference title and CFP probabilities from 50,000 simulated seasons using JP+ season-arc projections.
JP+ simulated CCG appearance and conference title probabilities
| Rk | Team | Conf W | Conf SOS | CCG% | Title% | JP+ FairJP+ Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GeorgiaSOS #10 | 6.4 | #10-0.2 pts | 34.9% | 19.8% | +404 |
| 2 |  LSUSOS #13 | 5.9 | #13-0.7 pts | 26.4% | 14.4% | +593 |
| 3 |  TexasSOS #4 | 5.6 | #4+0.7 pts | 22.0% | 11.7% | +754 |
| 4 |  Texas A&MSOS #9 | 5.5 | #9-0.1 pts | 18.9% | 9.7% | +927 |
| 5 |  Ole MissSOS #1 | 5.0 | #1+1.2 pts | 17.7% | 9.3% | +978 |
| 6 |  FloridaSOS #8 | 4.9 | #8+0.3 pts | 14.9% | 7.5% | +1226 |
| 7 |  OklahomaSOS #6 | 5.0 | #6+0.5 pts | 13.5% | 6.4% | +1458 |
| 8 |  AlabamaSOS #12 | 4.8 | #12-0.3 pts | 11.7% | 5.1% | +1857 |
| 9 |  TennesseeSOS #14 | 4.8 | #14-1.2 pts | 11.0% | 4.6% | +2065 |
| 10 |  AuburnSOS #5 | 3.9 | #5+0.6 pts | 6.1% | 2.7% | +3659 |
| 11 |  MissouriSOS #11 | 4.2 | #11-0.3 pts | 6.5% | 2.5% | +3853 |
| 12 |  South CarolinaSOS #15 | 4.2 | #15-1.3 pts | 6.1% | 2.3% | +4229 |
| 13 |  VanderbiltSOS #16 | 4.3 | #16-1.4 pts | 6.0% | 2.2% | +4405 |
| 14 |  ArkansasSOS #2 | 2.7 | #2+1.1 pts | 2.2% | 0.8% | +11805 |
| 15 |  Mississippi StateSOS #7 | 2.7 | #7+0.3 pts | 1.3% | 0.4% | +23710 |
| 16 |  KentuckySOS #3 | 2.1 | #3+0.8 pts | 0.9% | 0.3% | +29312 |
SEC terminal scoring-metric proxy
If a simulated tie reaches the SEC's terminal SportSource Analytics scoring-margin metric, JP+ uses a rating-based scoring-margin proxy because the binary game engine does not simulate exact score totals.
Method: The proxy is used only after the published head-to-head, common-opponent, next-highest-common-opponent, and cumulative opponent-winning-percentage steps do not resolve the tie.