Futures

Conference title and CFP probabilities from 50,000 simulated seasons using JP+ season-arc projections.

Conference Futures

JP+ simulated CCG appearance and conference title probabilities

SEC16 teams

Conf SOS: No. 1 is the hardest conference draw.

Rk	Team	Conf W	Conf SOS1 = hardest	CCG%	Title%	JP+ FairJP+ Fair Odds
1	Georgia SOS #11	6.3	#11-0.2 pts	33.5%	18.8%	+433
2	LSU SOS #13	5.9	#13-0.8 pts	25.6%	13.9%	+620
3	Texas SOS #4	5.6	#4+0.9 pts	21.5%	11.5%	+772
4	Texas A&M SOS #9	5.6	#9-0.1 pts	20.6%	10.8%	+830
5	Ole Miss SOS #1	5.1	#1+1.2 pts	18.4%	9.7%	+927
6	Florida SOS #7	5.0	#7+0.3 pts	16.5%	8.5%	+1082
7	Oklahoma SOS #5	5.1	#5+0.7 pts	15.3%	7.4%	+1250
8	Alabama SOS #12	4.7	#12-0.5 pts	10.6%	4.3%	+2204
9	Tennessee SOS #15	4.8	#15-1.3 pts	10.5%	4.3%	+2209
10	Missouri SOS #10	4.2	#10-0.1 pts	6.5%	2.6%	+3688
11	Auburn SOS #6	3.8	#6+0.4 pts	5.5%	2.4%	+4032
12	South Carolina SOS #14	4.2	#14-1.2 pts	6.0%	2.3%	+4305
13	Vanderbilt SOS #16	4.1	#16-1.5 pts	5.1%	1.9%	+5108
14	Arkansas SOS #2	2.7	#2+0.9 pts	2.1%	0.8%	+13058
15	Mississippi State SOS #8	2.8	#8+0.3 pts	1.4%	0.5%	+20733
16	Kentucky SOS #3	2.1	#3+0.9 pts	1.0%	0.4%	+27678

SEC terminal scoring-metric proxy

If a simulated tie reaches the SEC's terminal SportSource Analytics scoring-margin metric, JP+ uses a rating-based scoring-margin proxy because the binary game engine does not simulate exact score totals.

Method: The proxy is used only after the published head-to-head, common-opponent, next-highest-common-opponent, and cumulative opponent-winning-percentage steps do not resolve the tie.