2026 · Week 2 · Ratings generated Sep 8, 2026, 9:03 PM EDT
The market has opinions.
JP+ has data.
Opponent-adjusted play-by-play efficiency ratings for every FBS team. No wins, no polls, no point margins — just how teams actually play on each snap.
61.6%
ATS spread picks · blind holdoutBlind holdout tunes the selection system on three seasons and evaluates the fourth unseen season. In-sample is the historical production bet list measured on the data used to tune its filters.
62.2% in-sample (401-244-6)
62.4%
ATS game totals · blind holdout
65.2% in-sample (86-46-0)
+30.0%
ROI on win totals
78-45-4 · 20%+ EV filter
12.77
MAE · average miss vs final margin
lower is better · 3,481 games
Power Ratings
JP+ RatingOff profileDef profileST profile
Scale: points vs FBS average. JP+ Rating is the spread-model base surface; Off/Def/ST are explanatory profiles and may not sum in preseason or Week 1.
▲▼ rank change vs 2026 · Preseason
| Rk | Team | JP+ Ratingpts vs avg | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1— |  Ohio State Off. +10.1·Def. +12.8·ST +0.2 | +24.3 | +10.1 (4) | +12.8 (3) | +0.2 (67) |
2▲9 |  Miami Off. +11.0·Def. +10.1·ST +2.7 | +23.1 | +11.0 (3) | +10.1 (7) | +2.7 (15) |
3▲1 |  Texas Tech Off. +4.0·Def. +15.4·ST +0.1 | +22.7 | +4.0 (34) | +15.4 (1) | +0.1 (75) |
4▲1 |  Georgia Off. +9.1·Def. +10.5·ST +0.5 | +22.7 | +9.1 (9) | +10.5 (4) | +0.5 (55) |
5▼3 |  Oregon Off. +8.2·Def. +8.7·ST +1.9 | +21.5 | +8.2 (13) | +8.7 (11) | +1.9 (26) |
6▲3 |  Texas A&M Off. +8.8·Def. +9.2·ST +1.1 | +20.2 | +8.8 (10) | +9.2 (8) | +1.1 (46) |
7▼4 |  Indiana Off. +9.6·Def. +5.9·ST +1.9 | +19.0 | +9.6 (7) | +5.9 (17) | +1.9 (27) |
8▲6 |  Alabama Off. +5.9·Def. +8.9·ST +2.6 | +18.3 | +5.9 (23) | +8.9 (9) | +2.6 (16) |
9▲1 |  LSU Off. +4.2·Def. +14.3·ST -1.3 | +18.2 | +4.2 (33) | +14.3 (2) | -1.3 (117) |
10▼2 |  Texas Off. +8.1·Def. +7.6·ST +0.6 | +17.9 | +8.1 (14) | +7.6 (13) | +0.6 (53) |
11▲5 |  USC Off. +14.7·Def. +3.9·ST +0.2 | +17.8 | +14.7 (1) | +3.9 (27) | +0.2 (72) |
12▼6 |  Notre Dame Off. +5.6·Def. +8.7·ST +0.8 | +17.8 | +5.6 (27) | +8.7 (10) | +0.8 (49) |
13— |  Florida Off. +9.1·Def. +5.8·ST +1.7 | +17.3 | +9.1 (8) | +5.8 (18) | +1.7 (33) |
14▼2 |  Oklahoma Off. +4.9·Def. +10.1·ST +1.0 | +16.4 | +4.9 (29) | +10.1 (6) | +1.0 (48) |
15▲9 |  South Carolina Off. +10.0·Def. +7.4·ST +0.4 | +15.9 | +10.0 (6) | +7.4 (14) | +0.4 (60) |
16▲15 |  UCLA Off. +8.0·Def. +5.0·ST +3.3 | +15.6 | +8.0 (17) | +5.0 (23) | +3.3 (10) |
17▼2 |  Penn State Off. +5.8·Def. +5.4·ST +2.3 | +15.2 | +5.8 (25) | +5.4 (20) | +2.3 (21) |
18▼11 |  Ole Miss Off. +8.1·Def. +2.3·ST -0.3 | +13.8 | +8.1 (15) | +2.3 (41) | -0.3 (99) |
19— |  Tennessee Off. +10.0·Def. +1.5·ST +0.5 | +13.5 | +10.0 (5) | +1.5 (49) | +0.5 (58) |
20▼2 |  Iowa Off. 0.0·Def. +10.2·ST +1.7 | +13.3 | 0.0 (64) | +10.2 (5) | +1.7 (32) |
21▼1 |  Utah Off. +7.7·Def. +3.8·ST -0.3 | +13.2 | +7.7 (18) | +3.8 (28) | -0.3 (96) |
22▼5 |  Michigan Off. +3.5·Def. +5.4·ST +1.7 | +13.2 | +3.5 (37) | +5.4 (21) | +1.7 (34) |
23▼1 |  Vanderbilt Off. +11.5·Def. -0.9·ST +0.6 | +12.4 | +11.5 (2) | -0.9 (82) | +0.6 (52) |
24▼1 |  Missouri Off. +2.7·Def. +8.6·ST -0.3 | +12.1 | +2.7 (42) | +8.6 (12) | -0.3 (103) |
25▼4 |  Washington Off. +3.1·Def. +5.6·ST +0.8 | +11.1 | +3.1 (38) | +5.6 (19) | +0.8 (50) |
26▲18 |  Mississippi State Off. +8.8·Def. +1.6·ST +1.8 | +11.1 | +8.8 (11) | +1.6 (48) | +1.8 (30) |
27▲1 |  Louisville Off. +5.6·Def. +3.0·ST +2.0 | +10.6 | +5.6 (26) | +3.0 (37) | +2.0 (25) |
28▲5 |  Virginia Off. +1.2·Def. +7.1·ST +1.8 | +10.1 | +1.2 (51) | +7.1 (15) | +1.8 (29) |
29▼2 |  Nebraska Off. +8.0·Def. +0.3·ST +0.2 | +9.5 | +8.0 (16) | +0.3 (64) | +0.2 (70) |
30— |  BYU Off. +4.6·Def. +4.1·ST 0.0 | +9.4 | +4.6 (30) | +4.1 (25) | 0.0 (85) |
31▼2 |  SMU Off. +8.5·Def. +2.5·ST -1.7 | +8.8 | +8.5 (12) | +2.5 (40) | -1.7 (122) |
32— |  Florida State Off. +3.6·Def. -2.8·ST +4.4 | +8.4 | +3.6 (36) | -2.8 (98) | +4.4 (2) |
33▲6 |  Cincinnati Off. +1.3·Def. -0.3·ST +5.6 | +8.3 | +1.3 (50) | -0.3 (76) | +5.6 (1) |
34▲25 |  Memphis Off. +5.9·Def. +0.1·ST +3.1 | +8.1 | +5.9 (24) | +0.1 (68) | +3.1 (12) |
35▼1 |  Illinois Off. +7.7·Def. -0.2·ST 0.0 | +7.4 | +7.7 (19) | -0.2 (74) | 0.0 (79) |
36▼1 |  Arizona Off. +1.5·Def. +5.0·ST -0.4 | +7.0 | +1.5 (49) | +5.0 (22) | -0.4 (105) |
37▼11 |  Auburn Off. -1.5·Def. +5.9·ST +0.2 | +6.8 | -1.5 (84) | +5.9 (16) | +0.2 (68) |
38▼2 |  Virginia Tech Off. +3.6·Def. +0.7·ST +0.2 | +6.8 | +3.6 (35) | +0.7 (60) | +0.2 (69) |
39▼2 |  Kansas State Off. +1.6·Def. +3.2·ST +0.3 | +6.8 | +1.6 (46) | +3.2 (33) | +0.3 (63) |
40▼2 |  Maryland Off. +0.4·Def. +3.7·ST +0.1 | +6.6 | +0.4 (60) | +3.7 (30) | +0.1 (77) |
41▲19 |  Pitt Off. +6.6·Def. +1.0·ST +2.1 | +6.2 | +6.6 (22) | +1.0 (54) | +2.1 (23) |
42▼1 |  UCF Off. +1.6·Def. +1.0·ST +1.5 | +6.0 | +1.6 (48) | +1.0 (55) | +1.5 (37) |
43▼1 |  Baylor Off. +3.1·Def. +0.9·ST +0.5 | +5.7 | +3.1 (39) | +0.9 (57) | +0.5 (56) |
44▼1 |  Kentucky Off. +0.4·Def. +3.2·ST +0.3 | +5.5 | +0.4 (58) | +3.2 (34) | +0.3 (64) |
45▼5 |  Oklahoma State Off. -0.6·Def. +1.8·ST +1.6 | +5.1 | -0.6 (72) | +1.8 (45) | +1.6 (36) |
46▲2 |  Arizona State Off. +0.4·Def. +4.1·ST -0.3 | +5.1 | +0.4 (59) | +4.1 (26) | -0.3 (101) |
47▲2 |  Arkansas Off. +7.0·Def. -1.6·ST -0.3 | +5.1 | +7.0 (21) | -1.6 (87) | -0.3 (95) |
48▲3 |  Northwestern Off. +2.2·Def. +0.2·ST +0.2 | +4.8 | +2.2 (44) | +0.2 (66) | +0.2 (71) |
49▲5 |  Wisconsin Off. -2.4·Def. +3.7·ST +2.1 | +4.6 | -2.4 (92) | +3.7 (29) | +2.1 (24) |
50▲3 |  Minnesota Off. +0.7·Def. +1.8·ST +0.1 | +4.6 | +0.7 (57) | +1.8 (44) | +0.1 (73) |
51▲1 |  Houston Off. +1.6·Def. -1.3·ST +2.5 | +4.4 | +1.6 (47) | -1.3 (86) | +2.5 (18) |
52▼5 |  NC State Off. -1.3·Def. +1.1·ST +2.9 | +4.4 | -1.3 (82) | +1.1 (52) | +2.9 (13) |
53▼28 |  Clemson Off. -5.0·Def. +3.5·ST +1.5 | +4.3 | -5.0 (115) | +3.5 (32) | +1.5 (38) |
54▲1 |  Kansas Off. +4.5·Def. -1.0·ST -0.1 | +4.2 | +4.5 (31) | -1.0 (84) | -0.1 (88) |
55▲2 |  Navy Off. +2.6·Def. -0.5·ST 0.0 | +3.5 | +2.6 (43) | -0.5 (78) | 0.0 (82) |
56▲2 |  South Florida Off. -2.9·Def. +0.9·ST +3.5 | +3.3 | -2.9 (98) | +0.9 (59) | +3.5 (9) |
57▲9 |  North Carolina Off. +0.9·Def. +2.9·ST -1.4 | +2.7 | +0.9 (55) | +2.9 (38) | -1.4 (121) |
58▲4 |  Iowa State Off. +0.2·Def. +2.0·ST -0.1 | +2.6 | +0.2 (62) | +2.0 (42) | -0.1 (89) |
59▼13 |  Colorado Off. 0.0·Def. +3.0·ST -2.4 | +2.4 | 0.0 (63) | +3.0 (35) | -2.4 (129) |
60▲10 |  Boise State Off. -2.2·Def. 0.0·ST +3.8 | +2.4 | -2.2 (90) | 0.0 (70) | +3.8 (5) |
61▲3 |  Army Off. -0.2·Def. -0.3·ST 0.0 | +2.2 | -0.2 (67) | -0.3 (75) | 0.0 (83) |
62▲3 |  Syracuse Off. -0.1·Def. -0.2·ST 0.0 | +2.1 | -0.1 (66) | -0.2 (73) | 0.0 (80) |
63▼13 |  TCU Off. -4.0·Def. +2.5·ST +1.3 | +2.0 | -4.0 (108) | +2.5 (39) | +1.3 (40) |
64▲14 |  James Madison Off. -1.9·Def. +0.9·ST +3.2 | +1.8 | -1.9 (89) | +0.9 (58) | +3.2 (11) |
65▲11 |  Michigan State Off. -3.4·Def. -0.8·ST +4.3 | +1.6 | -3.4 (101) | -0.8 (81) | +4.3 (3) |
66▼3 |  Cal Off. -6.3·Def. -8.5·ST +0.3 | +1.6 | -6.3 (126) | -8.5 (133) | +0.3 (65) |
67▲2 |  San Diego State Off. -2.3·Def. +3.6·ST +0.1 | +1.3 | -2.3 (91) | +3.6 (31) | +0.1 (74) |
68▼12 |  Duke Off. -2.7·Def. +0.7·ST +0.5 | +1.2 | -2.7 (94) | +0.7 (61) | +0.5 (59) |
69▲2 |  Purdue Off. +0.9·Def. -0.2·ST +0.1 | +1.0 | +0.9 (54) | -0.2 (71) | +0.1 (76) |
70▼3 |  Wake Forest Off. -1.2·Def. +1.4·ST +0.5 | +0.8 | -1.2 (80) | +1.4 (50) | +0.5 (57) |
71▲32 |  Arkansas State Off. +4.9·Def. -3.7·ST +1.9 | +0.4 | +4.9 (28) | -3.7 (110) | +1.9 (28) |
72▼4 |  Rutgers Off. +3.0·Def. -5.1·ST +1.1 | +0.3 | +3.0 (40) | -5.1 (118) | +1.1 (45) |
73— |  UTSA Off. +1.0·Def. +0.3·ST -0.7 | 0.0 | +1.0 (53) | +0.3 (65) | -0.7 (111) |
74▲1 |  Air Force Off. -0.3·Def. -2.9·ST 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.3 (68) | -2.9 (99) | 0.0 (84) |
75▼14 |  UNLV Off. -1.0·Def. +0.2·ST -1.2 | -0.3 | -1.0 (77) | +0.2 (67) | -1.2 (116) |
76▼31 |  Georgia Tech Off. -1.6·Def. +0.6·ST -1.9 | -0.4 | -1.6 (85) | +0.6 (63) | -1.9 (126) |
77▲4 |  North Dakota State Off. -4.8·Def. +4.5·ST +2.3 | -0.9 | -4.8 (113) | +4.5 (24) | +2.3 (22) |
78▲17 |  Western Michigan Off. -6.0·Def. +1.1·ST +3.6 | -1.2 | -6.0 (123) | +1.1 (53) | +3.6 (8) |
79▼5 |  West Virginia Off. -3.6·Def. -0.5·ST +1.3 | -1.3 | -3.6 (103) | -0.5 (77) | +1.3 (41) |
80▲16 |  New Mexico Off. -1.0·Def. +0.6·ST +0.4 | -1.3 | -1.0 (78) | +0.6 (62) | +0.4 (62) |
81▼9 |  East Carolina Off. -3.7·Def. -0.2·ST +1.4 | -1.4 | -3.7 (105) | -0.2 (72) | +1.4 (39) |
82▲3 |  Liberty Off. -1.8·Def. -1.1·ST +0.4 | -2.1 | -1.8 (88) | -1.1 (85) | +0.4 (61) |
83▲1 |  Temple Off. -0.6·Def. -2.7·ST -0.3 | -2.8 | -0.6 (71) | -2.7 (97) | -0.3 (98) |
84▼7 |  Tulane Off. -4.8·Def. +1.9·ST -1.3 | -2.9 | -4.8 (114) | +1.9 (43) | -1.3 (120) |
85▲1 |  Utah State Off. -0.9·Def. -2.0·ST -0.4 | -2.9 | -0.9 (76) | -2.0 (92) | -0.4 (106) |
86▲35 |  Coastal Carolina Off. -0.8·Def. -2.9·ST +2.8 | -3.0 | -0.8 (74) | -2.9 (101) | +2.8 (14) |
87— |  Miami (OH) Off. -1.8·Def. -2.7·ST +1.2 | -3.1 | -1.8 (87) | -2.7 (96) | +1.2 (43) |
88▲5 |  FAU Off. +1.7·Def. -8.9·ST 0.0 | -3.5 | +1.7 (45) | -8.9 (135) | 0.0 (86) |
89▼10 |  Washington State Off. -3.5·Def. +1.1·ST -2.3 | -4.3 | -3.5 (102) | +1.1 (51) | -2.3 (128) |
90▲30 |  Nevada Off. -0.5·Def. -3.3·ST +2.6 | -4.4 | -0.5 (70) | -3.3 (103) | +2.6 (17) |
91▲9 |  Oregon State Off. +0.3·Def. -1.9·ST -1.3 | -4.4 | +0.3 (61) | -1.9 (89) | -1.3 (118) |
92▼12 |  Fresno State Off. -6.1·Def. +1.0·ST -0.8 | -4.6 | -6.1 (124) | +1.0 (56) | -0.8 (113) |
93▲30 |  Wyoming Off. -4.5·Def. -0.7·ST +3.8 | -4.7 | -4.5 (112) | -0.7 (80) | +3.8 (6) |
94▲14 |  Troy Off. -5.3·Def. -3.6·ST +4.3 | -4.8 | -5.3 (116) | -3.6 (108) | +4.3 (4) |
95▼7 |  Boston College Off. +0.7·Def. -1.6·ST -3.4 | -4.8 | +0.7 (56) | -1.6 (88) | -3.4 (135) |
96▲2 |  UConn Off. 0.0·Def. -5.3·ST 0.0 | -4.9 | 0.0 (65) | -5.3 (120) | 0.0 (78) |
97▲2 |  Jacksonville State Off. -3.9·Def. -1.9·ST +0.5 | -5.0 | -3.9 (106) | -1.9 (90) | +0.5 (54) |
98▼7 |  Western Kentucky Off. -0.9·Def. -2.0·ST -1.3 | -5.0 | -0.9 (75) | -2.0 (93) | -1.3 (119) |
99▼2 |  Toledo Off. -1.3·Def. +1.7·ST -3.9 | -5.3 | -1.3 (81) | +1.7 (46) | -3.9 (136) |
100▼8 |  North Texas Off. +2.8·Def. -5.1·ST -2.6 | -5.7 | +2.8 (41) | -5.1 (119) | -2.6 (132) |
101— |  Appalachian State Off. -2.9·Def. -3.6·ST -0.2 | -6.2 | -2.9 (96) | -3.6 (106) | -0.2 (91) |
102— |  Kennesaw State Off. -1.7·Def. -3.6·ST -0.9 | -6.4 | -1.7 (86) | -3.6 (109) | -0.9 (114) |
103▲1 |  Old Dominion Off. -2.7·Def. +0.1·ST -2.1 | -6.6 | -2.7 (95) | +0.1 (69) | -2.1 (127) |
104▲1 |  Louisiana Tech Off. -5.4·Def. -0.6·ST -0.4 | -6.9 | -5.4 (117) | -0.6 (79) | -0.4 (108) |
105▲1 |  Georgia Southern Off. -0.4·Def. -7.2·ST -0.3 | -6.9 | -0.4 (69) | -7.2 (129) | -0.3 (97) |
106▼12 |  Tulsa Off. -4.1·Def. -1.0·ST -2.6 | -7.0 | -4.1 (109) | -1.0 (83) | -2.6 (133) |
107▲15 |  San Jose State Off. +4.4·Def. +1.6·ST +1.6 | -7.0 | +4.4 (32) | +1.6 (47) | +1.6 (35) |
108▼1 |  Colorado State Off. -0.7·Def. -4.0·ST -1.8 | -7.1 | -0.7 (73) | -4.0 (111) | -1.8 (124) |
109— |  FIU Off. -1.1·Def. +3.0·ST -0.3 | -7.2 | -1.1 (79) | +3.0 (36) | -0.3 (102) |
110▲1 |  Ohio Off. -2.9·Def. -4.8·ST +0.8 | -8.0 | -2.9 (97) | -4.8 (116) | +0.8 (51) |
111▼21 |  Marshall Off. -4.0·Def. -2.2·ST -2.5 | -8.0 | -4.0 (107) | -2.2 (94) | -2.5 (131) |
112▼2 |  Delaware Off. -3.1·Def. -5.5·ST -0.4 | -8.4 | -3.1 (99) | -5.5 (123) | -0.4 (107) |
113▼30 |  Hawaii Off. -14.2·Def. -10.1·ST -1.8 | -8.7 | -14.2 (138) | -10.1 (136) | -1.8 (123) |
114▼25 |  Stanford Off. -6.0·Def. -6.2·ST -0.2 | -8.8 | -6.0 (121) | -6.2 (126) | -0.2 (94) |
115▼2 |  UAB Off. -1.4·Def. -6.7·ST -0.2 | -9.1 | -1.4 (83) | -6.7 (127) | -0.2 (92) |
116▲11 |  Akron Off. -3.1·Def. -4.6·ST +1.0 | -9.2 | -3.1 (100) | -4.6 (114) | +1.0 (47) |
117▼35 |  Texas State Off. +1.1·Def. -4.9·ST -6.0 | -9.5 | +1.1 (52) | -4.9 (117) | -6.0 (137) |
118▼6 |  Buffalo Off. -6.8·Def. -3.0·ST 0.0 | -9.5 | -6.8 (127) | -3.0 (102) | 0.0 (87) |
119▼3 |  Central Michigan Off. -7.0·Def. -3.5·ST +1.1 | -9.6 | -7.0 (128) | -3.5 (105) | +1.1 (44) |
120▼6 |  Louisiana Off. -5.8·Def. -4.7·ST -0.3 | -10.4 | -5.8 (120) | -4.7 (115) | -0.3 (100) |
121▼6 |  Bowling Green Off. -6.2·Def. -4.3·ST -0.2 | -10.5 | -6.2 (125) | -4.3 (112) | -0.2 (93) |
122▼5 |  Rice Off. -7.6·Def. -2.6·ST 0.0 | -10.5 | -7.6 (131) | -2.6 (95) | 0.0 (81) |
123▼5 |  South Alabama Off. -3.6·Def. -5.3·ST -1.1 | -10.7 | -3.6 (104) | -5.3 (121) | -1.1 (115) |
124▼5 |  Southern Miss Off. -6.0·Def. -3.6·ST -0.7 | -11.2 | -6.0 (122) | -3.6 (107) | -0.7 (110) |
125▲11 |  Sam Houston Off. -2.4·Def. -5.5·ST -0.3 | -12.6 | -2.4 (93) | -5.5 (124) | -0.3 (104) |
126▲4 |  New Mexico State Off. -7.8·Def. -2.9·ST +0.2 | -13.3 | -7.8 (132) | -2.9 (100) | +0.2 (66) |
127▼3 |  Missouri State Off. -7.8·Def. -6.8·ST -0.8 | -14.6 | -7.8 (133) | -6.8 (128) | -0.8 (112) |
128— |  Middle Tennessee Off. -4.2·Def. -8.8·ST -0.1 | -15.4 | -4.2 (111) | -8.8 (134) | -0.1 (90) |
129▲2 |  Kent State Off. -7.4·Def. -11.0·ST +2.4 | -15.9 | -7.4 (130) | -11.0 (138) | +2.4 (20) |
130▼4 |  Eastern Michigan Off. -9.7·Def. -4.4·ST -2.4 | -16.0 | -9.7 (134) | -4.4 (113) | -2.4 (130) |
131▲2 |  Ball State Off. -10.3·Def. -7.8·ST +2.5 | -16.1 | -10.3 (135) | -7.8 (131) | +2.5 (19) |
132▲5 |  Sacramento State Off. -4.1·Def. -5.3·ST +1.8 | -17.0 | -4.1 (110) | -5.3 (122) | +1.8 (31) |
133▼4 |  Northern Illinois Off. -10.4·Def. -3.5·ST -3.2 | -17.2 | -10.4 (136) | -3.5 (104) | -3.2 (134) |
134▲4 |  UMass Off. +7.6·Def. -5.7·ST +3.6 | -17.9 | +7.6 (20) | -5.7 (125) | +3.6 (7) |
135— |  ULM Off. -5.4·Def. -11.0·ST +1.2 | -18.6 | -5.4 (118) | -11.0 (137) | +1.2 (42) |
136▼4 |  Georgia State Off. -5.6·Def. -8.5·ST -1.9 | -18.7 | -5.6 (119) | -8.5 (132) | -1.9 (125) |
137▼12 |  UTEP Off. -7.0·Def. -1.9·ST -9.6 | -19.8 | -7.0 (129) | -1.9 (91) | -9.6 (138) |
138▼4 |  Charlotte Off. -10.6·Def. -7.5·ST -0.5 | -20.4 | -10.6 (137) | -7.5 (130) | -0.5 (109) |
Methodology
How JP+ Works
01
Measure efficiency
Play-by-play Success Rate and explosiveness, opponent-adjusted via Ridge Regression. Not points. Not wins. How teams play on each snap.
02
Find disagreements
JP+ projects its own spread for every game. When it disagrees with Vegas by 5+ points and the sigma model is confident, that's an edge.
03
Filter ruthlessly
Edge threshold → sigma gate → EV check → structural vetoes. Only the highest-conviction situations survive to the pick list.