About JP+

JP+ is an independent college football power ratings model. It rates every FBS team using opponent-adjusted play-by-play efficiency data, then converts those ratings into projected game spreads, win totals, and betting edges.

What Makes JP+ Different

Most public ratings (AP Poll, CFP Rankings, even some computer models) are built on outcomes: wins, losses, and point margins. JP+ ignores outcomes and measures how teams actually play on each snap. Two teams can both win 35-14, but one did it with 55% Success Rate against a top-20 defense while the other did it with 38% Success Rate against a bottom-20 defense and got lucky with three turnovers. JP+ sees the difference.

The model is also market-blind. Vegas lines are never used as inputs or training targets. When JP+ disagrees with Vegas, that disagreement is the signal — not an error to correct.

How the Model Works

Efficiency Foundation Model (EFM)

The core engine is a Ridge Regression trained on play-by-play data from every FBS game. Each team gets an opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive rating built from three inputs:

  • Success Rate — Did the play gain enough yards to stay on schedule?
  • Isolated Points Per Play — How explosive is each play, measured in expected points added, isolated from field position?

Special Teams

A separate model rates field goal accuracy, punt net yardage, and kickoff returns. Special teams ratings feed directly into the spread prediction without a cap.

Preseason Priors

Before the season starts, each team's prior-year offensive, defensive, and special teams ratings are carried forward with mean reversion, then adjusted for coaching changes, recruiting talent, and transfer portal activity. As the season progresses and real play-by-play data accumulates, the priors are gradually replaced by in-season efficiency data.

Walk-Forward Design

Every prediction is made using only data available before that game. The model never sees future games when making a prediction — the same constraint you face when placing a bet. This is validated across the full 2022-2025 backtest with strict chronological guards.

Data Freshness

During the season, ratings and picks are updated each Sunday morning after play-by-play data becomes available from the previous day's games. Opening lines are captured when sportsbooks first post them (typically Sunday morning). During the preseason, ratings are static projections based on prior-year performance, recruiting, and transfer portal activity.

How to Use JP+

  1. 1

    Check the Power Ratings

    See where every FBS team stands on offense, defense, and special teams. The gap between two teams' ratings approximates the projected point spread — before home field is applied.

  2. 2

    Browse the Picks Page

    Weekly spread, total, and moneyline parlay recommendations where JP+ disagrees meaningfully with Vegas opening lines. Filtered for the highest-confidence situations with the strongest historical edge.

  3. 3

    Dig Into Team Stories

    Click any team on the Resume Ratings page for a game-by-game season breakdown — scores, JP+ projections, and Vegas lines side by side. Great for understanding why a team is rated where it is.

Validated Performance (2022-2025)

Walk-forward backtest across 4 seasons (3,481 regular-season games, weeks 1-15). No postseason — opt-outs, coaching changes, and motivation variance make bowls a different sport. The model predicts each game using only prior data, then its line is compared to Vegas to determine if the pick covered.

MarketATSROI
All Spreads51.2%—
5+ Edge (Full Szn)56.6%+8.0%
5+ Edge (Core)59.2%+13.1%
Spread Picks62.2%+18.8%
Game O/U Picks66.8%—
Team Totals73.8%—
Win Totals64.3%+34.4%

Regular season only (weeks 1-15, no postseason). All ATS vs opening lines. MAE = Mean Absolute Error (average miss in points). Win totals: 2023-2025, 20%+ EV with probability margin filter. Team totals: 2023-2025, away validated on real book lines, home OVER on synthetic lines. Break-even at -110 = 52.4%.

Conviction Flags (2022–2025)

Certain structural edges appear repeatedly in the data. When a pick qualifies for one of these signals, it gets a confidence badge on the picks page and increased stake sizing. Records are from core weeks (4–15) vs opening lines, all four seasons.

FlagRecordATSSize
Def Dom23-485.2%2.0×
Away Conviction92-4467.6%2.0×
SR Dominant37-1966.1%1.5×
Market Lag51-3360.7%1.5×

Flags can stack — stacked picks receive higher sizing (up to 3.0×). Flags are only applied on 5+ pt edge picks in core weeks. Records are from the production bet list vs opening lines.

How Picks Are Selected

Not every game where JP+ disagrees with Vegas makes the pick list. Games pass through three filters before surfacing as a recommendation:

  1. Edge threshold — JP+'s projected spread must disagree with Vegas by at least 5 points. Smaller edges don't reliably overcome the vig.
  2. Sigma qualification — A game-specific uncertainty model estimates how confident JP+ is in its own prediction. Games where the model's uncertainty is high relative to its edge are filtered out — even a large edge means little if the model isn't confident.
  3. Expected value — Each remaining game is priced against the vig to confirm positive expected value. If a pick doesn't clear EV after accounting for the -110 juice, it's dropped.

Three structural vetoes remove game profiles that historically neutralize the edge regardless of magnitude: Conference Favorite Fog Zone (conference favorite in a moderate-tempo game — scheme familiarity compresses margins), Dead Zone Underdog (home dog getting +14 to +17.5 — the spread is too small for backdoor covers), and Chalk Trap (JP+ reinforces a 7+ pt home favorite by only 5–8 pts — the edge is adjustment-stack noise, not efficiency alpha). Vetoed games are shadow-tracked but not staked.

Six Betting Markets

Spreads

Game-by-game spread picks from two tiers: Selection Engine (highest-conviction) and 5+ Point Edge.

Game Totals

Over/Under picks on combined game scores. Filtered to extremes where the model has informational advantage.

Win Totals

Preseason season-win projections via Monte Carlo simulation. Compared to Vegas lines for EV-positive over/under bets.

Conference Futures

Simulated conference championship probabilities. Identifies mispriced conference title markets across all 10 FBS conferences.

National Championship

CFP appearance and national title probabilities from Monte Carlo simulation. Compared to sportsbook futures odds.

Dog ML Picks

Home underdogs where JP+'s implied win probability exceeds the market's by 15%+. Best used for line shopping across multiple books.

How to Read the Ratings

Each team's JP+ Overall rating is measured in points versus FBS average. A team rated +20 is roughly 20 points better than average per game. The gap between two teams' ratings approximates the projected point spread before home field is applied.

The overall rating is the sum of three components:

  • Offense — Higher is better. A +10 offense generates ~10 more points per game than average.
  • Defense — Higher is better (fewer points allowed). A +10 defense allows ~10 fewer points per game than average.
  • Special Teams — Field goals, punting, and kickoff returns. Typically ranges from -2.5 to +2.5.

JP+ vs Other Models

vs SP+ (ESPN): Both use play-by-play efficiency and publish projected lines vs Vegas. SP+ optimizes for prediction accuracy (minimizing spread error) and positions itself as a measure of team quality rather than a betting model. JP+ optimizes for ATS edge — a fundamentally different objective that prioritizes finding market mispricings over minimizing MAE.

vs FPI (ESPN): FPI blends efficiency with win probability and recruiting. It's designed for editorial rankings, not spread prediction. JP+ is purpose-built for betting edge.

vs Sagarin / Massey: These are margin-of-victory models that use final scores. JP+ uses play-level data, which is more predictive because it separates process from luck.