JP+ One-Sheet
Wisconsin
Big Ten | 2026
Projected Wins
6.1Team Thesis
Wisconsin Needs Proof, Not Just Promise, From a Rebuilt Roster. The theme in Madison is validation.
Model Profile
#54
JP+ Rank
#78
Offense
#26
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
6.5
Market
6.1
JP+
5.7
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.4 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#33
Rated coverage76%
Candidate members79
Rated players60
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path64%
4-2 start38%
Collapse risk14%
38% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 64%. Collapse risk 14% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 90% to 20%.
Bull Case
8-4If the defense's continuity holds up better than the attrition numbers suggest and Joseph stabilizes the run game early, this team beats 6.1 win…
Bear Case
5-7If the coverage unit and offensive line depth prove as fragile as the roster turnover implies, this slides toward the lower end of that range.
Big Ten Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Oregon | 9.7 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Ohio State | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Penn State | 8.8 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| Iowa | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Illinois | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| Wisconsin | 6.1 | 6.5 | 5.7 |
| Maryland | 6.1 | 5.5 | 6.0 |