The defining theme this offseason is attrition up front on defense, layered onto an offense that has to replace its top target-share producers. Western Michigan went 9-4 a year ago behind a defense that graded above average, and that unit remains the identity of the program even as it loses pieces at the edge. Broc Lowry returns at quarterback, which stabilizes the most important spot on the roster even though Mark Konecny departed via the portal. The bigger concern is around him: Devin Miles and Tre' Hartwell both left at running back, Tailique Williams and Blake Bosma thinned out the receiving corps, and the portal class arriving — headlined by tight end Adam Parks from New Mexico State and running back AJ Green from Arkansas — projects as a modest offset rather than a full replacement. With the offense already qualifying as bottom-tier in the model's view and special teams below average too, the defense carries even more weight than it did last season. It'll need to again, especially with edge pressure and role continuity both flagged as high-risk areas heading into fall camp.

JP+ projects 6.9 wins, a step down from last year's 9-4 mark, and the gap between that number and market expectations likely traces back to the defensive front reset and the target-share losses on offense. Replacement confidence on defense sits at medium, and the review process flags EDGE and front-seven sustainability as the area worth the most scrutiny before trusting the number fully. The schedule doesn't offer much cushion, with trips to Michigan and Toledo and a home date against Boise State forming the toughest stretch, while Eastern Michigan, Monmouth, and Kent State at home represent the clearest paths to bank wins. If the defensive front replaces its pressure production and the new skill-position pieces round into form quickly, Western Michigan can push past 6.8 and firm up bowl positioning. If the front seven takes time to gel and the offense stays bottom-tier, a step back toward .500 or worse is the more likely outcome.