JP+ One-Sheet

Western Michigan

Mid-American | 2026

Projected Wins

7.3

Team Thesis

Western Michigan Leans on a Defensive Front That Must Replace Its Edge Pressure. The defining theme this offseason is attrition up front on defense, layered onto an offense that has to replace its top target-share producers.

Model Profile

#95

JP+ Rank

#116

Offense

#48

Defense

-4.2

Overall

-5.0

Offense

+1.2

Defense

Why JP+ Is Lower

7.5

Market

7.3

JP+

7.4

SP+

JP+ GAP: -0.2 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#103

Rated coverage66%

Candidate members73

Rated players48

Season Path

Soft landing

Bowl path90%

4-2 start51%

Collapse risk10%

51% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 90%. Collapse risk 10% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk7: 87% to 62%.

Bull Case

9-3

If the defensive front replaces its pressure production and the new skill-position pieces round into form quickly, Western Michigan can push pas…

Bear Case

6-6

If the front seven takes time to gel and the offense stays bottom-tier, a step back toward .500 or worse is the more likely outcome.

Mid-American Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Toledo	8.2	7.5	7.5
Miami (OH)	7.5	7.5	8.4
Western Michigan	7.3	7.5	7.4
Ohio	6.5	6.5	7.0
Buffalo	6.3	--	7.0
Eastern Michigan	6.2	5.5	5.9
Central Michigan	6.2	6.5	5.7
Bowling Green	5.6	4.5	5.3