The theme here is replacement across the board. Maverick McIvor is gone at quarterback, and while he wasn't the top offensive departure by PPA, the Hilltoppers are turning to a new signal-caller after a portal class brought in Brock Glenn from Florida State as the presumptive answer. The bigger production losses came at running back and tight end — La'Vell Wright (32.2 PPA) is now at Pitt, and Noah Meyers (22.8 PPA) left for Syracuse — leaving a thin trail of returning target share for whoever wins the job. Kalib Hicks arrives from Oklahoma State and CC Ezirim from Toledo to help fill those gaps, but an offense already projected as below average now has to replace its top skill-position producers with largely unproven pieces. Defensively, the picture is murkier in a different way: the group grades out as roughly average, but the roster shed edge rushers and coverage pieces that made this a defense capable of carrying the 2025 team to an 8-4 finish, and the replacements haven't yet proven they can sustain that pressure.

JP+ pegs Western Kentucky at 6.9 projected wins, a step down from last year's mark and a number shaped heavily by roster turnover — 22 departures against 18 arrivals, with far more production leaving (64.4 PPA) than arriving (10.0 PPA). Toughest tests come at Georgia, at Indiana, and at Liberty, while Missouri State, Sam Houston, and Mercyhurst offer the clearest paths to wins. The gap between last season's win total and this year's projection largely comes down to continuity — the quarterback change, the lost target share, and a defensive front that has to replace real production simultaneously. If the new quarterback settles in quickly and the front seven replacements hold up against Conference USA runners, this group can push past 6.9 and stabilize toward last year's level. If either takes time to jell, a step back toward .500 is the more likely outcome.