JP+ One-Sheet
Western Kentucky
Conference USA | 2026
Projected Wins
6.9Team Thesis
Western Kentucky Rebuilds Its Skill Groups While the Front Seven Absorbs Losses on the Other Side. The theme here is replacement across the board.
Model Profile
#91
JP+ Rank
#106
Offense
#61
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
6.5
Market
6.9
JP+
7.1
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.4 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#97
Rated coverage70%
Candidate members71
Rated players50
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path86%
4-2 start33%
Collapse risk4%
33% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 86%. Collapse risk 4% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.9 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 57% to 3%.
Bull Case
8-4If the new quarterback settles in quickly and the front seven replacements hold up against Conference USA runners, this group can push past 6.9…
Bear Case
5-7If either takes time to jell, a step back toward .500 is the more likely outcome.
Conference USA Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Jacksonville State | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Western Kentucky | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| FIU | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
| Kennesaw State | 6.6 | -- | 6.6 |
| Delaware | 6.1 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| Missouri State | 5.0 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| Middle Tennessee | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 |