Robby Ashford returns as the starting quarterback, and that continuity matters given how much turnover swirls around him. Wake Forest lost 23 players to the portal, including receivers Sterling Berkhalter (off to Texas) and Chris Barnes (Oklahoma State), plus backup quarterback Deshawn Purdie, who left for Liberty. The headline addition is Gio Lopez, the North Carolina transfer, joining a receiver room that also brings in Wondame Davis Jr. from UTEP and Antonio Meeks from Louisville to help replace that lost production. The offense projects as roughly average, which is fine, because the defense remains the identity of this team — it graded as above-average again and figures to keep this group competitive even as the skill-position pieces get sorted out. Special teams looks like a wash, neither an asset nor a liability, leaving the defense to once again do the heavier lifting while a retooled offensive cast finds its footing.

JP+ projects 5.8 wins, a number that reflects both the defensive floor and the real uncertainty on offense after so much roster movement. The schedule doesn't do them many favors, with road trips to SMU and Louisville and a home date against Miami representing the toughest tests, while Stanford, Akron, and Merrimack at home offer more manageable paths to bowl eligibility. The gap between that projection and any rosier outside expectation comes down to how quickly the receiver room gels around Ashford and whether the front seven sustains its usual disruption. If the new pass-catchers hit the ground running and the defense holds serve, this team pushes toward the upper end of ACC contention. If the passing game misfires early, 5.8 wins could be the realistic ceiling rather than the floor.