JP+ One-Sheet
Wake Forest
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
5.8Team Thesis
Wake Forest Leans on Defense and Portal Veterans to Stay in the ACC Mix. Robby Ashford returns as the starting quarterback, and that continuity matters given how much turnover swirls around him.
Model Profile
#67
JP+ Rank
#71
Offense
#37
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
5.5
Market
5.8
JP+
6.1
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.3 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#68
Rated coverage74%
Candidate members89
Rated players66
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path54%
3-3 start61%
Collapse risk7%
61% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 54%. Collapse risk 7% (3 or fewer wins). Biggest shift Wk11: 93% to 24%.
Bull Case
7-5If the new pass-catchers hit the ground running and the defense holds serve, this team pushes toward the upper end of ACC contention.
Bear Case
4-8If the passing game misfires early, 5.8 wins could be the realistic ceiling rather than the floor.
ACC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Virginia | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Clemson | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Cal | 6.1 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| Wake Forest | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.1 |
| North Carolina | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.3 |