Virginia

Virginia's breakthrough 10-3 campaign was built on clutch third-down conversions and timely defensive stops, and the Cavaliers doubled down on that formula by adding Missouri transfer Beau Pribula to join returning starter Chandler Morris in what becomes one of the ACC's deepest quarterback rooms. The defense grades out 29th nationally at +3.8 points per game, carrying a mediocre offense that ranks 69th at -0.2 points below average, while the portal reshaped the skill positions with Solomon Beebe arriving from UAB and key receiver Trell Harris departing for Oklahoma. Pitt transfer Eli Holstein adds another proven arm to the mix, giving Virginia multiple options to exploit their signature third-down mastery that kept drives alive throughout their surprising 2025 run.

JP+ projects 6.3 wins for a team that exceeded expectations last season, with road trips to Florida State, SMU, and Virginia Tech representing the toughest tests on a schedule that includes favorable home matchups against Syracuse, Delaware, and Norfolk State. The gap between projection and last year's success reflects regression concerns around an offense that lost significant receiving production, though the defensive foundation remains intact and the quarterback depth provides insurance against injury or inconsistency. If Pribula or Holstein can elevate the passing game beyond Morris's steady floor, Virginia could again outpace modest expectations in an ACC that rewards teams capable of winning close games on third down.