JP+ One-Sheet
Virginia
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
8.1Team Thesis
Pribula Arrives to Replace Departed Production at Quarterback. Chandler Morris is gone, and Virginia didn't just dip into the portal for a replacement — it went shopping twice.
Model Profile
#33
JP+ Rank
#60
Offense
#18
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
7.5
Market
8.1
JP+
7.8
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Early equity
85% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 96%. Collapse risk 4% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.8 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk5: 91% to 41%.
Bull Case
10-2If the quarterback competition resolves cleanly and the defensive front finds answers early, this group can push past 8.0 and contend near the t…
Bear Case
7-5If the offense stalls in transition or the defensive turnover proves costlier than expected, a step back toward the middle of the conference is…
ACC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Virginia | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Clemson | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Florida State | 7.1 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| NC State | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Virginia Tech | 7.0 | 6.5 | 7.1 |