Vanderbilt

The departure of Diego Pavia creates Vanderbilt's biggest question mark after the transfer quarterback engineered the most successful season in program history, including that stunning upset of #1 Alabama. The Commodores enter 2026 ranked 19th nationally in JP+ at +13.7 points, powered by the nation's top offense at +13.8 but weighed down by a 79th-ranked defense at -1.1. Portal activity largely maintained roster strength with 18 arrivals adding 47.3 PPA to offset 19 departures that cost 48.7 PPA, headlined by the addition of Old Dominion receiver Ja'Cory Thomas (23.4 PPA) to help replace departed wideout Tre Richardson (43.4 PPA). New defensive coordinator Steve Gregory takes over those duties as the program looks to build on its 10-2 breakthrough.

JP+ projects 7.1 wins for the Commodores, well above most market totals that still view last season as an outlier rather than a sustainable leap. The offense's elite rating suggests Pavia's replacement can step into a system loaded with weapons like Thomas and East Carolina transfer tight end Jayvontay Conner (21.8 PPA), while a defense that allowed too many points must improve under Gregory's guidance. Road trips to Georgia and Florida plus a home date with Ole Miss provide the stiffest tests in an otherwise manageable slate. If the new signal-caller proves capable and the defense takes a step forward, another double-digit win season isn't out of reach. If not, this could be a quick return to SEC mediocrity.