JP+ One-Sheet

Vanderbilt

SEC | 2026

Projected Wins

6.8

Team Thesis

Vanderbilt Moves On From Diego Pavia. The Diego Pavia era is over, and replacing the most impactful transfer quarterback in program history is the defining task of Vanderbilt's offseason.

Model Profile

#22

JP+ Rank

Offense

#79

Defense

+12.4

Overall

+11.5

Offense

-0.7

Defense

Why JP+ Is Higher

5.5

Market

6.8

JP+

6.3

SP+

JP+ GAP: +1.3 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#39

Rated coverage77%

Candidate members79

Rated players61

Season Path

Early equity

Bowl path81%

3-3 start88%

Collapse risk1%

88% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 81%. Collapse risk 1% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 71% to 42%.

Bull Case

8-4

If the quarterback competition resolves cleanly and the receiving corps gels around Thomas and Conner, this group can match or exceed last year'…

Bear Case

5-7

If the transition drags, 6.8 wins is a fair midpoint for a roster still elite on paper but unproven at the position that mattered most in 2024's…

SEC Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Georgia	9.2	10.5	9.9
LSU	8.7	8.5	8.5
Texas A&M	8.5	8.5	8.5
Texas	7.9	9.5	8.2
Ole Miss	7.8	8.5	7.2
Alabama	7.3	8.5	7.8
Vanderbilt	6.8	5.5	6.3
Missouri	6.7	6.5	7.3