The defining theme for UTSA this offseason is replacement at the margins — not a full teardown, but enough turnover at wide receiver, tight end, and along the defensive front to force real questions about continuity. Devin McCuin (35.2 PPA) left for Ohio State, while tight ends Houston Thomas (17.4 PPA) and Patrick Overmyer (17.3 PPA) departed for Texas A&M and Houston, respectively, stripping out a big chunk of target share. The portal response brought in T.J. West from Texas Tech as the headline addition, along with tight end Brandon Young Jr. from North Texas and running back Brandon High Jr. from Cal, but the incoming PPA (1.7 total) doesn't come close to replacing what walked out the door (69.9). Owen McCown returns as the starting quarterback, which stabilizes the equation even as the weapons around him churn. The offense and defense both grade out as roughly average units, with special teams the clear weak link, and the defensive front — dealing with edge pressure attrition — is worth watching as much as the receiving corps.

JP+ projects 7.2 wins, a number that reflects a team with real continuity questions at skill positions and up front but enough returning infrastructure at quarterback to keep the floor respectable. The toughest tests come at Texas and Texas State on the road, plus a home date with Navy, while UAB, Colorado State, and UT Rio Grande Valley offer the clearest paths to wins. The gap between this projection and public perception likely comes down to how quickly West and the tight end room replace lost target share, and whether the front seven can withstand the edge attrition without bleeding explosive plays. If the new pass-catchers click quickly and the defensive front holds up, this group pushes toward the upper end of that range. If not, a rebuild in the passing game and along the edge could make it a longer year than the record suggests.