JP+ One-Sheet
UTSA
American | 2026
Projected Wins
7.2Team Thesis
UTSA Rebuilds Its Skill Groups While Owen McCown Anchors the Offense. The defining theme for UTSA this offseason is replacement at the margins — not a full teardown, but enough turnover at wide receiver, tight end, and along the defensive front to f…
Model Profile
#73
JP+ Rank
#57
Offense
#60
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
7.5
Market
7.2
JP+
7.5
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Cliff risk
55% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 88%. Collapse risk 12% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 96% to 47%.
Bull Case
9-3If the new pass-catchers click quickly and the defensive front holds up, this group pushes toward the upper end of that range.
Bear Case
6-6If not, a rebuild in the passing game and along the edge could make it a longer year than the record suggests.
American Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| Navy | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Army | 7.6 | -- | 7.2 |
| Memphis | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| East Carolina | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| UTSA | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Tulsa | 6.7 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| FAU | 6.4 | 5.5 | 6.5 |