UTSA

The Roadrunners must replace their most productive offensive players after watching receiver Devin McCuin (35.2 PPA) bolt for Ohio State and tight ends Houston Thomas (17.4 PPA) and Patrick Overmyer (17.3 PPA) transfer to Texas A&M and Houston respectively. Twenty-three departures cost UTSA 69.9 PPA while 20 arrivals added just 1.7 PPA back, headlined by Texas Tech transfer receiver T.J. West. Owen McCown returns at quarterback for what projects as a middling American Athletic Conference campaign, with the offense grading out at 61st nationally (+0.3) while the defense sits exactly at average (+0.0) and special teams rank a concerning 119th.

JP+ projects 6.8 wins for a program trying to steady itself after a .500 season, though the schedule offers both opportunity and peril with road trips to Texas balancing home dates against UAB and UT Rio Grande Valley. The offense must find new pass-catching threats beyond West, while McCown needs to prove he can distribute effectively to a largely rebuilt receiving corps that also includes North Texas transfer tight end Brandon Young Jr. If the defense can mask offensive growing pains and McCown develops chemistry quickly with his new targets, eight wins aren't impossible. If the portal losses prove too steep to overcome, another sub-.500 finish looms.