UTSA

UTSA's offseason revolves around replacing massive target-share production after losing their top receiving threats to Power Four programs. The Roadrunners bid farewell to receiver Devin McCuin (35.2 PPA, Ohio State) and tight ends Houston Thomas (17.4 PPA, Texas A&M) and Patrick Overmyer (17.3 PPA, Houston), creating a gaping hole that represents just 1% target-share continuity. Owen McCown returns at quarterback, but his top weapons are now T.J. West from Texas Tech and Brandon Young Jr. from North Texas — a significant step down in proven production. The defense grades out solidly at 65th nationally, though edge pressure sustainability presents its own continuity concerns after front-seven attrition.

JP+ projects 7.0 wins for the Roadrunners, who rank 77th nationally with a -1.9 power rating that reflects modest expectations across all three phases. The offense sits at 71st while special teams rank a concerning 127th, creating little margin for error in American Athletic play. UTSA's portal class brought in 20 arrivals but added minimal proven production compared to the 23 departures, suggesting this team will rely heavily on internal development and unproven commodities. If McCown can quickly develop chemistry with his new receiving corps and the defense maintains its steady production, UTSA could push for eight wins and bowl eligibility. If the target-share replacement struggles early, six wins feels more realistic.