UTEP

The Miners enter 2026 with significant offensive uncertainty after losing quarterback Malachi Nelson and top receiver Wondame Davis Jr. to the transfer portal, creating a leadership vacuum that defines their offseason. UTEP's JP+ rating of -13.0 points (#128 nationally) reflects an offense grading 135th nationally at -9.9 points, while the defense provides relative stability at 80th nationally. The portal brought 20 departures worth 46.5 PPA against just 21 arrivals adding 14.4 PPA, headlined by Buffalo running back Lamar Sperling (10.4 PPA) who joins fellow backs Tavorus Jones from Missouri and receiver Royal Capell from Oklahoma State to help replace departed production including running back Ashten Emory (12.4 PPA to Cal).

JP+ projects 5.2 wins for the Miners, well above the market's 3.5-win expectation, creating a compelling Over opportunity with 76% expected value despite the structural uncertainties. The gap stems partly from the defense's relative competence compared to the struggling offense, though defensive front continuity concerns and edge pressure attrition create their own questions about sustainability. A road schedule featuring Oklahoma, Michigan, and Air Force provides limited margin for error, while home games against San Jose State and Texas Southern offer win-probability anchors. If the new signal-caller emerges from the competition and Sperling provides immediate backfield impact, UTEP could surprise in the Mountain West's middle tier — but offensive line instability and quarterback inexperience could just as easily drag them toward another disappointing campaign.