JP+ One-Sheet

UTEP

Mountain West | 2026

Projected Wins

4.6

Team Thesis

UTEP Enters 2026 Replacing Its Quarterback and Its Backfield All at Once. The theme here is turnover at the skill positions, layered on top of a defense that has to replace pressure off the edge.

Model Profile

#125

JP+ Rank

#132

Offense

#80

Defense

-12.4

Overall

-9.7

Offense

-0.8

Defense

Why JP+ Is Higher

3.5

Market

4.6

JP+

3.3

SP+

JP+ GAP: +1.1 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#89

Rated coverage71%

Candidate members79

Rated players56

Season Path

Cliff risk

Bowl path23%

2-4 start77%

Collapse risk1%

77% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 23%. Collapse risk 1% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.2 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 96% to 4%.

Bull Case

6-6

If the new starting quarterback settles in quickly and the offensive line holds up behind him, UTEP clears 4.7 and pushes toward bowl-eligibilit…

Bear Case

3-9

If the line stays unsettled and the edge rush erodes further, this stays a bottom-tier offense propping up an average defense, and the record lo…

Mountain West Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
UNLV	8.1	7.5	8.8
Air Force	8.0	7.5	7.6
North Dakota State	7.9	9.5	8.3
Hawaii	7.2	7.5	7.7
New Mexico	7.0	7.5	8.2
San Jose State	4.8	4.5	4.4
UTEP	4.6	3.5	3.3
Northern Illinois	4.1	3.5	3.6