The theme here is turnover at the skill positions, layered on top of a defense that has to replace pressure off the edge. Malachi Nelson is gone to Syracuse, taking his 7.2 PPA with him and leaving the starting job to the new signal-caller to sort out in camp. Wondame Davis Jr. left for Wake Forest and Ashten Emory left for Cal, stripping away two of the more productive names from an offense that already projects as bottom-tier. The portal response brought in Lamar Sperling from Buffalo, the headline addition at 10.4 PPA, along with Tavorus Jones from Missouri and Royal Capell from Oklahoma State, but 20 departures against 21 arrivals and a net PPA swing well into the red tells you this roster is still being pieced together. The defense, by contrast, grades out roughly average and remains the more stable half of the team, even with edge attrition worth watching after a front-seven reset.

JP+ pegs UTEP at 4.7 projected wins, while the market bet leans Over 3.5 at 60% EV — a gap that mostly reflects how the offensive line rebuild and the quarterback competition get resolved. Special teams sitting at the bottom of the scale doesn't help close that margin in tight games. The schedule offers a path: Nevada, San Jose State and Texas Southern at home look winnable, while road trips to Oklahoma, Michigan and Air Force offer little cushion. If the new starting quarterback settles in quickly and the offensive line holds up behind him, UTEP clears 4.7 and pushes toward bowl-eligibility conversation. If the line stays unsettled and the edge rush erodes further, this stays a bottom-tier offense propping up an average defense, and the record looks a lot like 2025.