Utah State

Utah State's offseason centers on replacing departed receiver Braden Pegan, who transferred to Utah after posting 49.0 PPA production. The Aggies counter with Georgia State transfer Javon Robinson (27.5 PPA) and Virginia's Eli Wood (16.7 PPA), though that duo doesn't fully offset Pegan's output. Bryson Barnes returns under center to lead an offense that grades out 78th nationally at -1.4 points, while the defense sits 100th at -2.6 points in their inaugural Pac-12 campaign. The transfer portal saw 19 departures cost 50.7 PPA, with 29 arrivals adding back 34.9 PPA — a net deficit that reflects the challenges of roster management during conference transition.

JP+ projects 4.9 wins for the Aggies, who face a brutal Pac-12 slate including road trips to Utah, Washington, and Boise State as their toughest tests. Home games against Troy, Colorado State, and Idaho State offer the clearest paths to victories. The defense's struggles at 100th nationally create vulnerability against the conference's better offenses, though special teams rank 109th and provide little help in close games. If Robinson and Wood mesh quickly with Barnes and the offense improves significantly from its 78th ranking, Utah State could push toward bowl eligibility. If not, the defensive shortcomings will leave them fighting for respectability in their new conference home.