JP+ One-Sheet
Utah State
Pac-12 | 2026
Projected Wins
4.9Team Thesis
Utah State Leans on Bryson Barnes and a Retooled Receiving Corps to Fix a Below-Average Attack. The defining theme this offseason is receiver reconstruction around a returning quarterback.
Model Profile
#86
JP+ Rank
#83
Offense
#91
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
4.5
Market
4.9
JP+
4.4
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.4 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#100
Rated coverage54%
Candidate members85
Rated players46
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path32%
3-3 start52%
Collapse risk5%
52% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 32%. Collapse risk 5% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.3 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 90% to 8%.
Bull Case
6-5If that group gels quickly and the defense holds its stable baseline, Utah State finishes comfortably above the projection and threatens seven w…
Bear Case
3-8If the passing game needs a few months to find rhythm, a season closer to the 4.8 floor is the more likely outcome.
Pac-12 Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Boise State | 6.7 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| Fresno State | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.9 |
| Texas State | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| Washington State | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Utah State | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Oregon State | 4.6 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Colorado State | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.9 |