JP+ One-Sheet
Utah State
Pac-12 | 2026
Projected Wins
4.8
Model Profile
#89
JP+ Rank
#82
Off Adj
#91
Def Adj
Overall
-3.0
Offense
-0.9
Defense
-1.9
Win Total Context
4.5
Market
4.8
JP+
4.3
SP+
Bowl Path31%
Fast Start50%
Collapse Risk5%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
50% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 31%. Collapse risk 5% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.2 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 90% to 8%.
Pac-12 Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Boise State | 6.9 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Fresno State | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.3 |
| Texas State | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Washington State | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Utah State | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Colorado State | 4.8 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| Oregon State | 4.6 | 3.5 | 5.0 |