Utah

The seismic shift at Utah isn't just about replacing a legendary coach — it's about whether Morgan Scalley can maintain the program's momentum after Kyle Whittingham's earth-shattering departure to Michigan following a 10-2 season. The Utes enter 2026 ranked 15th nationally with a +14.6 JP+ rating, powered by an explosive offense that grades ninth nationally at +9.4 points per game but held back by a 23rd-ranked defense that struggled mightily against the run. Devon Dampier returns as the starter after a solid 2025 campaign, inheriting a receiving corps dramatically upgraded through the portal with Braden Pegan (49.0 PPA from Utah State) and Kyri Shoels (45.2 PPA from San Jose State) replacing departed standout JJ Buchanan, who followed Whittingham to Michigan.

JP+ projects 8.9 wins for Utah in their Big 12 title chase, with road tests at Arizona and TCU plus the annual BYU rivalry game representing the steepest challenges on a schedule that includes favorable home matchups against Kansas, Utah State, and Idaho. The gap between projection and Big 12 championship aspirations hinges entirely on defensive improvement — specifically fixing a run defense that allowed opponents to control games on the ground despite the offense's prolific +9.4 rating. If Scalley's staff can shore up the front seven while Dampier maximizes the upgraded skill position talent, Utah reaches the Big 12 title game; if the run defense remains porous, they'll fall short of double-digit wins despite the offensive firepower.