Kyle Whittingham left for Michigan, and Utah didn't look outside the building to replace him — Morgan Scalley steps up as head coach, and the biggest reason for optimism is that Devon Dampier is still the guy under center. That continuity matters. The offense profiles as a clear strength again, and Dampier returns with a retooled receiving corps after JJ Buchanan left for Michigan in the portal; Utah answered by bringing in Braden Pegan from Utah State and Kyri Shoels from San Jose State, a pair of portal additions that combined to add real juice to the passing game. Steve Chavez-Soto arrives from San Jose State to help replace Raycine Guillory in the backfield. The defense carried Utah to a 10-2 season. It'll need to hold up again, and that's the open question — front-seven attrition and coverage turnover have thinned the group, with edge pressure and secondary depth both needing new answers after significant role loss up front.

JP+ pegs Utah at 8.5 wins, a number that reflects a top-tier overall outlook even with defensive uncertainty baked in. The path to the Big 12 title game runs through road trips to Arizona, Cincinnati and TCU, while home dates with West Virginia, Utah State and Idaho should be manageable. The gap between projection and public perception likely centers on how much the coaching transition and defensive front rebuild get discounted before the season starts. If the run defense holds up and Scalley's staff gets the front seven sorted, Utah's offense is good enough to carry it to a Big 12 title game. If the pressure and coverage questions linger, 8.5 wins could be closer to the ceiling than the floor.