JP+ One-Sheet

Utah

Big 12 | 2026

Projected Wins

8.6

Team Thesis

Utah Promotes From Within and Hands Scalley a Ready-Made Contender. Kyle Whittingham left for Michigan, and Utah didn't look outside the building to replace him — Morgan Scalley steps up as head coach, and the biggest reason for optimism is that Dev…

Model Profile

#20

JP+ Rank

#12

Offense

#31

Defense

+13.3

Overall

+7.7

Offense

+3.9

Defense

Why JP+ Converges

8.5

Market

8.6

JP+

8.0

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.1 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#61

Rated coverage76%

Candidate members66

Rated players50

Season Path

Early equity

Bowl path98%

5-1 start62%

Collapse risk6%

62% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 98%. Collapse risk 6% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 91% to 70%.

Bull Case

10-2

If the run defense holds up and Scalley's staff gets the front seven sorted, Utah's offense is good enough to carry it to a Big 12 title game.

Bear Case

7-5

If the pressure and coverage questions linger, 8.6 wins could be closer to the ceiling than the floor.

Big 12 Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Texas Tech	10.7	10.5	10.6
Utah	8.6	8.5	8.0
BYU	7.6	8.5	8.8
Kansas State	7.4	8.5	8.1
Arizona	7.2	7.5	7.6
UCF	6.9	5.5	6.0
Houston	6.7	8.5	7.4
TCU	6.5	6.5	7.4