UMass

The Minutemen enter 2026 with significant offensive uncertainty after losing starting quarterback AJ Hairston, creating a wide-open competition under center. JP+ rates them 138th nationally at -25.8 points, with both offense (-12.8, 138th) and defense (-11.5, 137th) ranking near the bottom of FBS while special teams (83rd) provides modest competency. The transfer portal brought meaningful reinforcement in running back Justin Williams-Thomas from Marshall (11.6 PPA) and depth piece Jordan Washington from Murray State, but the departure of receiver Jacquon Gibson to Virginia removes their top target from last season.

JP+ projects 3.9 wins across 12 games, with the toughest tests coming at Rutgers and Toledo plus a home date with Miami (OH), while games against Ball State, Sacred Heart, and Stonehill offer the clearest paths to victory. The offensive continuity concerns run deep beyond just the quarterback position, with significant turnover creating replacement uncertainty throughout the skill positions despite the portal additions. If the new signal-caller can establish early rhythm with Williams-Thomas and the revamped receiving corps, UMass could exceed modest expectations. If not, another long season awaits in Amherst.