JP+ One-Sheet
UMass
Mid-American | 2026
Projected Wins
3.0Team Thesis
UMass Enters Another Season Defined by Quarterback Uncertainty. The defining theme in Amherst is replacement at the most important position on the field.
Model Profile
#138
JP+ Rank
#138
Offense
#138
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
2.5
Market
3.0
JP+
3.0
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.5 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#120
Rated coverage52%
Candidate members69
Rated players36
Season Path
Soft landing
Bowl path3%
2-4 start59%
Collapse risk3%
59% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 3%. Collapse risk 3% (0 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk11: 42% to 5%.
Bull Case
5-7If the quarterback competition produces a stabilizing answer quickly and the offensive line holds up its returning continuity, UMass could scrap…
Bear Case
2-10If not, another season in the bottom tier of the conference is the likely floor.
Mid-American Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Miami (OH) | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| Western Michigan | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Ohio | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| Buffalo | 6.3 | -- | 7.0 |
| Sacramento State | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| UMass | 3.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 |