UMass

The Minutemen's portal strategy centers on addition by subtraction, bringing in 21 newcomers while losing 19 departures in a roster reshuffling that added 16.9 PPA against 8.0 lost. The most significant arrival is running back Justin Williams-Thomas from Marshall, whose 11.6 PPA leads a backfield reinforcement that includes Jordan Washington from Murray State. UMass ranks 138th nationally in JP+'s preseason power ratings at -25.3 points, with both offense (-13.2, 138th) and defense (-12.0, 138th) grading among the nation's worst units. The departure of receiver Jacquon Gibson (19.5 PPA) to Virginia creates a significant hole in the passing game, though quarterback William Watson III arrives from Virginia Tech to compete for the starting job after AJ Hairston's departure.

JP+ projects 3.2 wins for UMass in 2026, a number that reflects both the mathematical reality of facing programs like Rutgers, UConn, and Toledo on the road while hosting more manageable opponents in Ball State, Sacred Heart, and Stonehill at home. The portal additions provide depth and talent upgrades across multiple position groups, but the systemic issues that landed both sides of the ball at the bottom of national rankings require significant development to translate into wins. If the new signal-caller can establish rhythm with the revamped skill position group and Williams-Thomas provides the ground game stability, UMass could exceed modest expectations. If not, another long season awaits in a program still searching for consistent competitiveness.