ULM

ULM enters 2026 dealing with significant roster turnover that creates structural uncertainty on both sides of the ball. The Warhawks' defensive front requires rebuilding after losing key pass rushers, while the offense must replace major target share after Jonathan Bibbs (22.9 PPA) transferred to UCF and Tyler Griffin (12.9 PPA) moved to East Tennessee State. Aidan Armenta returns at quarterback, but he'll be working with largely new receiving options beyond tight end addition Bryce Anderson (7.9 PPA from Memphis). The program's -16.7 JP+ rating ranks 132nd nationally, with both the offense (-6.2, 125th) and defense (-8.1, 131st) grading poorly despite average special teams play.

JP+ projects 3.8 wins for ULM, reflecting the combination of talent deficits and continuity challenges across multiple position groups. The defense's moderate continuity risk centers on edge pressure attrition and coverage losses that could make it difficult to generate stops against better competition. Meanwhile, offensive target-share continuity sits at just 4%, meaning Armenta will need to quickly develop chemistry with new receivers while the rebuilt defensive front learns to work together. If the new pieces gel quickly and Anderson provides a reliable target, ULM could exceed modest expectations. If the defensive front struggles to pressure quarterbacks and the offense can't replace its departed playmakers, another long season awaits.