JP+ One-Sheet
ULM
Sun Belt | 2026
Projected Wins
3.1Team Thesis
ULM Rebuilds Its Front Seven While Leaning on Aidan Armenta. The defining theme in Monroe is defensive reconstruction.
Model Profile
#135
JP+ Rank
#124
Offense
#133
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
3.5
Market
3.1
JP+
1.8
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.4 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#135
Rated coverage46%
Candidate members50
Rated players23
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path3%
2-4 start51%
Collapse risk16%
51% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 3%. Collapse risk 16% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 77% to 16%.
Bull Case
5-7If the coverage and edge questions resolve faster than expected and the offense finds a reliable second target, this team can push past its floo…
Bear Case
2-10If the attrition up front lingers, 3.1 wins may prove generous.
Sun Belt Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 7.7 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Marshall | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Arkansas State | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| Louisiana | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Appalachian State | 6.8 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Georgia State | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| ULM | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 |