UConn

Jason Candle takes over a UConn program coming off a solid 9-3 season, but the Huskies' defensive limitations create immediate concerns for the new head coach. The defense grades out 110th nationally at -3.5 points per game, dragging down an otherwise respectable offensive unit that ranks 70th. The transfer portal reshaped the roster significantly, with 45 departures costing 111.8 PPA while 53 arrivals added just 57.8 PPA back. Key losses include receivers John Neider (32.0 PPA to West Virginia) and Reymello Murphy (26.5 PPA), offset partially by Toledo transfers led by quarterback Kalieb Osborne (24.2 PPA) and receiver Ryder Treadway (16.7 PPA).

JP+ projects 6.2 wins for the Huskies, a steep drop from last year's total that reflects both the coaching transition and roster turnover. The defense's poor rating creates a low floor, especially with challenging road games at Air Force and Miami (OH) plus a home date with North Carolina highlighting the schedule's tougher stretches. Home contests against Old Dominion, Lafayette, and UMass offer more manageable opportunities to build momentum. If Candle can quickly install his system and the Toledo transfers provide immediate impact, UConn could surprise and approach eight wins. If the defensive struggles persist and the new pieces don't mesh quickly, a step back to four or five wins becomes likely.