JP+ One-Sheet

UConn

FBS Independents | 2026

Projected Wins

6.4

Team Thesis

UConn Enters Jason Candle Era With a New QB and a Retooled Receiving Corps. Jason Candle takes over a program coming off a 9-3 season, and the defining story of his first offseason is quarterback transition.

Model Profile

#98

JP+ Rank

#68

Offense

#120

Defense

-4.9

Overall

0.0

Offense

-5.2

Defense

Why JP+ Is Higher

5.5

Market

6.4

JP+

5.1

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.9 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#69

Rated coverage74%

Candidate members77

Rated players57

Season Path

Cliff risk

Bowl path70%

3-3 start66%

Collapse risk3%

66% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 70%. Collapse risk 3% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk9: 94% to 30%.

Bull Case

8-4

If Osborne or whoever wins the job finds rhythm quickly and the defense's replacements handle coverage responsibilities better than expected, UC…

Bear Case

5-7

If the transition drags, a step back toward .500 territory is the more realistic outcome.

FBS Independents Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Notre Dame	10.1	11.5	10.8
UConn	6.4	5.5	5.1