UCF

No one expected miracles in the first year back, but UCF is swinging for the fences in the transfer portal with quarterback Alonza Barnett III leading a significant roster reconstruction. The Knights' mediocre ratings reflect last season's 5-7 struggles — offense sitting dead average at 63rd nationally while the defense dragged them down at 77th — but the portal math tilts positive with 143.3 PPA arriving versus 130.5 departing. Barnett brings 91.1 PPA from James Madison to replace departed starter Tayven Jackson, while fellow portal quarterback Keyone Jenkins from FIU and receiver Jonathan Bibbs from ULM add depth to skill positions that needed reinforcement.

JP+ projects 6.2 wins for UCF in their Big 12 campaign, a modest improvement that hinges entirely on whether the new signal-caller can elevate an offense that managed just break-even production last fall. The schedule sets up reasonably with home games against Baylor, Georgia State, and Bethune-Cookman providing win opportunities, though road trips to Houston and Pitt plus a home date with BYU will test any progress. If Barnett adapts quickly and the defense shows marginal improvement from its bottom-quarter showing, eight wins becomes possible. If the quarterback transition stumbles, another sub-.500 season looms in a competitive Big 12.