JP+ One-Sheet

UCF

Big 12 | 2026

Projected Wins

6.9

Team Thesis

UCF Rebuilds Behind the Portal After a 5-7 Season. Nobody expected a finished product after a 5-7 debut, and the offseason plan reflects that reality: fix the quarterback room through the portal and hope the rest holds.

Model Profile

#41

JP+ Rank

#51

Offense

#50

Defense

+6.0

Overall

+1.5

Offense

+1.1

Defense

Why JP+ Is Higher

5.5

Market

6.9

JP+

6.0

SP+

JP+ GAP: +1.4 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#58

Rated coverage59%

Candidate members85

Rated players50

Season Path

Early equity

Bowl path82%

3-3 start91%

Collapse risk1%

91% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 82%. Collapse risk 1% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 99% to 46%.

Bull Case

8-4

If the new signal-caller settles in quickly and the line continuity translates to real push up front, this group clears 6.8 with room to spare.

Bear Case

5-7

If the quarterback transition drags into November, a season closer to last year's 5-7 finish is the more realistic outcome.

Big 12 Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Texas Tech	10.7	10.5	10.6
Utah	8.6	8.5	8.0
BYU	7.6	8.5	8.8
Kansas State	7.4	8.5	8.1
Arizona	7.2	7.5	7.6
UCF	6.9	5.5	6.0
Houston	6.7	8.5	7.4
TCU	6.5	6.5	7.4