JP+ One-Sheet
UCF
Big 12 | 2026
Projected Wins
6.8
Model Profile
#68
JP+ Rank
#61
Off Adj
#65
Def Adj
Overall
+1.1
Offense
+0.4
Defense
+0.1
Win Total Context
5.5
Market
6.8
JP+
6.0
SP+
Bowl Path80%
Fast Start90%
Collapse Risk1%
Path Shape
Early equity
90% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 80%. Collapse risk 1% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 99% to 44%.
Big 12 Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 10.7 | 10.5 | 10.7 |
| Utah | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| BYU | 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.7 |
| Kansas State | 7.2 | 8.5 | 8.2 |
| Arizona | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| UCF | 6.8 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| TCU | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| Kansas | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.8 |
| Cincinnati | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Houston | 6.5 | 8.5 | 7.4 |
| Arizona State | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Baylor | 6.3 | 6.5 | 5.9 |