Alex Mortensen inherits a UAB program that returns its quarterback but little of the connective tissue around him, and that tension defines the offseason. Jalen Kitna is back after 2025, which should provide some stability under center, but the pieces that made the passing game work are largely gone. Iverson Hooks (58.5 PPA) left for Oregon, Corri Milliner (24.3 PPA) departed to North Texas, and leading rusher Solomon Beebe (26.9 PPA) took his talents to Virginia. UAB responded by restocking the backfield through the portal — Braylon McReynolds arrives from ULM, Roderick Robinson II from Georgia, and Ja'Vin Simpkins from Coastal Carolina — but replacing target share and offensive line continuity with 38 total newcomers is not a plug-and-play exercise. The offense projects as merely below average, while the defense and special teams sit in bottom-tier territory across the board, meaning last year's 4-8 finish reflects a program still searching for its floor rather than its ceiling.

JP+ projects 4.3 wins, which lines up closely with where a team facing this much roster churn should sit, especially with road trips to Illinois, South Florida, and Memphis on the schedule. The gap between projection and outside optimism, if any exists, comes down to whether Kitna's continuity at quarterback offsets a 4% returning target share and an offensive line that's been almost entirely reset. Home dates against ULM, Charlotte, and Samford offer the clearest path to bowl-eligible math. If McReynolds and the new backfield mesh quickly with Kitna and the defense avoids the bottom-tier outcomes the model fears, six wins is in play. If the offensive line reset lingers into October, this could be a step back before Mortensen's rebuild takes hold.