JP+ One-Sheet

UAB

American | 2026

Projected Wins

4.6

Team Thesis

UAB Hands Alex Mortensen a Roster in Transition. Alex Mortensen inherits a UAB program that returns its quarterback but little of the connective tissue around him, and that tension defines the offseason.

Model Profile

#113

JP+ Rank

#103

Offense

#125

Defense

-10.3

Overall

-3.1

Offense

-5.9

Defense

Why JP+ Is Higher

3.5

Market

4.6

JP+

4.1

SP+

JP+ GAP: +1.1 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#93

Rated coverage62%

Candidate members68

Rated players42

Season Path

Early equity

Bowl path21%

2-4 start88%

Collapse risk1%

88% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 21%. Collapse risk 1% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk6: 93% to 15%.

Bull Case

6-6

If McReynolds and the new backfield mesh quickly with Kitna and the defense avoids the bottom-tier outcomes the model fears, six wins is in play.

Bear Case

3-9

If the offensive line reset lingers into October, this could be a step back before Mortensen's rebuild takes hold.

American Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
South Florida	8.2	8.5	8.1
Navy	7.8	7.5	8.0
Army	7.6	--	7.2
Memphis	7.4	7.5	7.8
East Carolina	7.4	7.5	7.6
Temple	6.1	5.5	5.6
UAB	4.6	3.5	4.1
Rice	3.8	3.5	3.6