JP+ One-Sheet
UAB
American | 2026
Projected Wins
4.3
Model Profile
#116
JP+ Rank
#101
Off Adj
#125
Def Adj
Overall
-10.4
Offense
-3.1
Defense
-6.0
Win Total Context
3.5
Market
4.3
JP+
3.8
SP+
Bowl Path16%
Fast Start85%
Collapse Risk1%
Path Shape
Early equity
85% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 16%. Collapse risk 1% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk6: 92% to 13%.
American Athletic Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | 8.2 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Navy | 7.9 | 7.5 | 8.1 |
| Army | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| East Carolina | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| Memphis | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| UTSA | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Tulsa | 6.6 | 5.5 | 6.3 |
| North Texas | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| FAU | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.1 |
| Temple | 6.1 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| UAB | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Rice | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| Charlotte | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 |