Baylor Hayes returns as the starting quarterback, and that continuity matters more than the churn happening around him. Tulsa lost Brody Foley (29.4 PPA) to Louisville, Zion Steptoe (15.7 PPA) to Minnesota, and backup Kirk Francis (11.8 PPA) to Texas Tech, part of a portal exodus that saw 22 players leave and take 80.6 PPA with them. The response was aggressive: 21 arrivals worth 78.4 PPA, headlined by receiver David Wells Jr. from Oregon State, running back Trequan Jones from Old Dominion, and quarterback Dexter Williams II from Kennesaw State as insurance behind Hayes. That's a lot of new faces for an offense already sitting in mixed offensive continuity territory, with just 28% of targets returning even though the offensive line brings back 73% of its snaps. The defense, by contrast, is stable — no major role-loss flags, light departure numbers relative to the rest of the country's rosters. Both sides of the ball still profile as below average heading into the season, with special teams closer to the middle of the pack, which tracks with a team coming off a 4-8 finish looking to find its footing.

JP+ projects 6.6 wins, noticeably above the market's break-even number, with the over on 5.5 carrying 32% expected value. The schedule offers a path — Sam Houston on the road, Charlotte and East Texas A&M at home all look manageable — while trips to Arkansas and Navy, plus a home date with Oklahoma State, represent the toughest tests. The gap between the projection and the market number comes down to replacement confidence sitting at medium: the pieces are there, but so is uncertainty about how fast Wells Jr., Jones, and the rest of the new arrivals mesh with Hayes. If the retooled skill-position group clicks quickly and the defense holds its stable form, Tulsa clears 6.6 wins and pushes for bowl eligibility. If the offensive turnover lingers into conference play, this stays a below-.500 team fighting for the same 4-8 range as a year ago.