JP+ One-Sheet
Tulsa
American | 2026
Projected Wins
6.6
Model Profile
#97
JP+ Rank
#102
Off Adj
#96
Def Adj
Overall
-5.5
Offense
-3.2
Defense
-2.2
Win Total Context
5.5
Market
6.6
JP+
6.3
SP+
Bowl Path76%
Fast Start76%
Collapse Risk2%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
76% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 76%. Collapse risk 2% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.2 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 96% to 20%.
American Athletic Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | 8.2 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Navy | 7.9 | 7.5 | 8.1 |
| Army | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| East Carolina | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| Memphis | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| UTSA | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Tulsa | 6.6 | 5.5 | 6.3 |
| North Texas | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Tulane | 6.2 | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| FAU | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.1 |
| Temple | 6.1 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| UAB | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.8 |