JP+ One-Sheet

Tulsa

American | 2026

Projected Wins

6.7

Team Thesis

Tulsa Rebuilds the Skill Positions Around Baylor Hayes While the Defense Holds Steady. Baylor Hayes returns as the starting quarterback, and that continuity matters more than the churn happening around him.

Model Profile

#94

JP+ Rank

#97

Offense

#90

Defense

-4.1

Overall

-2.6

Offense

-1.8

Defense

Why JP+ Is Higher

5.5

Market

6.7

JP+

6.6

SP+

JP+ GAP: +1.2 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#81

Rated coverage67%

Candidate members76

Rated players51

Season Path

Cliff risk

Bowl path79%

3-3 start79%

Collapse risk1%

79% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 79%. Collapse risk 1% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 96% to 22%.

Bull Case

8-4

If the retooled skill-position group clicks quickly and the defense holds its stable form, Tulsa clears 6.7 wins and pushes for bowl eligibility.

Bear Case

5-7

If the offensive turnover lingers into conference play, this stays a below-.500 team fighting for the same 4-8 range as a year ago.

American Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
South Florida	8.2	8.5	8.1
Navy	7.8	7.5	8.0
Army	7.6	--	7.2
Memphis	7.4	7.5	7.8
East Carolina	7.4	7.5	7.6
UTSA	7.2	7.5	7.5
Tulsa	6.7	5.5	6.6
FAU	6.4	5.5	6.5