Tulane

The portal giveth and taketh away, but for Tulane it mostly took. The Green Wave lost 27 players including top receivers Shazz Preston (41.7 PPA to Indiana) and Omari Hayes (31.0 PPA to Iowa State), creating offensive continuity concerns that help explain their modest #79 offensive rating despite an 11-2 season. New head coach Will Hall inherits a team with clear structural advantages — the special teams unit ranks fifth nationally (+0.7 points) — but faces the challenge of integrating key additions like running back Jaylin Lucas from Florida State and tight end Dawson Johnson from Old Dominion while navigating a quarterback competition after Jake Retzlaff's departure.

JP+ projects 6.1 wins for a team that sits 73rd nationally at -1.1 points, with both offense (-1.1, #79) and defense (-1.2, #78) grading as below-average units facing moderate continuity risks on the defensive front. The gap between last year's success and this year's projection reflects the reality that portal losses created mixed offensive continuity and edge pressure attrition on defense, even as Hall brings proven FBS head coaching experience to steady the program. If the new signal-caller emerges quickly and Lucas provides the ground game stability Hall needs, there's enough talent to compete in the American Athletic Conference. If not, the defensive reset and offensive uncertainty could make this a longer rebuilding year than expected.