Tulane

The portal giveth and taketh away, but for Tulane, it mostly took. The Green Wave lost 80.7 points of production above average through 27 departures, headlined by receiver Shazz Preston (41.7 PPA) to Indiana and Omari Hayes (31.0 PPA) to Iowa State, while adding just 20.4 PPA back through 20 arrivals. New head coach Will Hall inherits a team that went 11-2 but now grades out at -0.6 points nationally (#71), with both the offense (-0.7, #74) and defense (-0.8, #73) sitting below average while special teams (#5 nationally) provides the lone bright spot. The additions of running back Jaylin Lucas from Florida State and tight end Dawson Johnson from Old Dominion give Hall pieces to work with, but replacing that receiver production will define the season.

JP+ projects 6.8 wins for Tulane, a number that reflects both the talent drain and the program's established foundation that prevents a complete collapse. Road games at South Florida, Kansas State, and Duke represent the toughest tests, while home dates with South Alabama and North Texas offer chances to build momentum. The new signal-caller will need to find chemistry quickly with a retooled receiving corps, and Lucas must provide the ground game stability that Zuberi Mobley offered before his portal departure. If Hall can maximize the remaining talent and the defense holds up despite personnel losses, eight wins remains possible. If the offensive adjustments stall and the portal losses compound, six wins becomes the realistic ceiling.