JP+ One-Sheet
Tulane
American | 2026
Projected Wins
6.2Team Thesis
Tulane Turns Page to Will Hall Era With Floor Still Intact. Tulane went 11-2 last season, then watched a chunk of that production walk out the door.
Model Profile
#77
JP+ Rank
#84
Offense
#85
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
7.5
Market
6.2
JP+
6.6
SP+
JP+ GAP: -1.3 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#77
Rated coverage72%
Candidate members72
Rated players52
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path68%
4-2 start23%
Collapse risk32%
23% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 68%. Collapse risk 32% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 76% to 19%.
Bull Case
8-4If the new quarterback wins the job cleanly and Lucas provides an immediate lift in the backfield, this group can play toward the middle of its…
Bear Case
5-7If the offensive line and front-seven questions linger into October, 6.2 wins looks like a fair landing spot rather than a floor.
American Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| Navy | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Army | 7.6 | -- | 7.2 |
| Memphis | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| East Carolina | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| FAU | 6.4 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Tulane | 6.2 | 7.5 | 6.6 |
| North Texas | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.0 |