Tulane went 11-2 last season, then watched a chunk of that production walk out the door. Will Hall takes over for Jon Sumrall, inheriting a program with a real floor but a portal class that took real hits. Shazz Preston (41.7 PPA) left for Indiana, Omari Hayes (31.0 PPA) departed for Iowa State, and the offense that returns is a low-continuity group by nature — 50% offensive returning production, just 63% on the offensive line, and a target pool that returns only 10%. The quarterback room lost a passer in the portal too, though the bigger story under center is simply that the job is open; Hall has to identify the new signal-caller while also plugging Jaylin Lucas in at running back after his move from Florida State. Dawson Johnson, the top overall portal addition at tight end from Old Dominion, gives the offense a new piece to build around. Defensively, the profile is steady in the aggregate, but edge and front pressure took attrition, part of what the review process flags as a defensive front reset. Across the board, this looks like a program built to be roughly average on both sides of the ball with special teams as the one clear separator.

JP+ projects 6.2 wins out of 12, a sharp step down from 11 a year ago, and the gap comes from replacing so much offensive skill talent and defensive front depth at once rather than any single collapse. The schedule doesn't do Hall many favors either, with road trips to Kansas State, Duke, and Army representing the toughest stretch, while home dates with South Alabama and Southern Miss plus a trip to Charlotte offer the clearest paths to wins. If the new quarterback wins the job cleanly and Lucas provides an immediate lift in the backfield, this group can play toward the middle of its conference and stabilize quickly. If the offensive line and front-seven questions linger into October, 6.2 wins looks like a fair landing spot rather than a floor.