The defining theme is a receiving corps stripped for parts around a quarterback who isn't going anywhere. Will Crowder returns as the starter, but the pass-catchers who made him effective are mostly gone: Tray Taylor (42.9 PPA) hit the portal without a landing spot yet, Roman Mothershed (16.4 PPA) left for LSU, and DJ Epps (11.9 PPA) departed for West Virginia. Troy's answer is TJ Lott, the top arrival at 5.1 PPA from Old Dominion, joined by Purdue running back transfer Jaheim Merriweather — a group that projects as a downgrade in target share even if the volume is similar. That matches the broader qualitative picture: an offense that grades as bottom-tier, a defense that's roughly average, and special teams that lag as well, with an offensive line also being rebuilt from scratch and a secondary replacing significant coverage snaps.

JP+ projects 6.6 wins, a number that reflects both the offensive line reset and the coverage attrition on defense more than any single game on the schedule. The road trips to Missouri, James Madison, and Arkansas State look like the toughest tests, while home dates against ULM, Sam Houston, and Alabama State offer the clearest path to bowl eligibility. Continuity across the roster is fragile enough — particularly at wideout and along both lines — that replacement-level play could sink this closer to 5 or 6 wins. If Lott and the incoming skill players stabilize the passing game quickly and the retooled front seven holds up, 8 wins is within reach; if not, this is a team treading water in the middle of the Sun Belt.