JP+ One-Sheet
Troy
Sun Belt | 2026
Projected Wins
6.6
Model Profile
#108
JP+ Rank
#115
Off Adj
#88
Def Adj
Overall
-7.4
Offense
-4.8
Defense
-1.7
Win Total Context
6.5
Market
6.6
JP+
7.4
SP+
Bowl Path77%
Fast Start48%
Collapse Risk8%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
48% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 77%. Collapse risk 8% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.3 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 90% to 8%.
Sun Belt Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.4 |
| Marshall | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Arkansas State | 7.3 | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| Louisiana | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Appalachian State | 6.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Troy | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Old Dominion | 6.4 | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 6.3 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Georgia Southern | 6.1 | 4.5 | 5.7 |
| South Alabama | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Coastal Carolina | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.9 |
| Southern Miss | 4.8 | 3.5 | 2.6 |