JP+ One-Sheet
Troy
Sun Belt | 2026
Projected Wins
6.4Team Thesis
Troy Rebuilds Its Receiving Corps Behind an Unchanged Quarterback. The defining theme is a receiving corps stripped for parts around a quarterback who isn't going anywhere.
Model Profile
#108
JP+ Rank
#115
Offense
#89
Defense
Why JP+ Converges
6.5
Market
6.4
JP+
7.2
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Cliff risk
43% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 74%. Collapse risk 9% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 89% to 7%.
Bull Case
8-4If Lott and the incoming skill players stabilize the passing game quickly and the retooled front seven holds up, 8 wins is within reach; if not,…
Bear Case
5-7If Lott and the incoming skill players stabilize the passing game quickly and the retooled front seven holds up, 8 wins is within reach; if not,…
Sun Belt Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 7.7 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Marshall | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Arkansas State | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| Louisiana | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Appalachian State | 6.8 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Troy | 6.4 | 6.5 | 7.2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 6.4 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Old Dominion | 6.1 | 7.5 | 7.2 |