Troy

Troy's offseason story is written in departures, particularly at receiver where the Trojans lost their entire top tier of pass-catchers. Tray Taylor (42.9 PPA), Roman Mothershed (16.4 PPA to LSU), and DJ Epps (11.9 PPA to West Virginia) all hit the portal, gutting a receiving corps that helped fuel an 8-5 season. The Trojans added TJ Lott from Old Dominion and running back Jaheim Merriweather from Purdue, but those additions barely dent the 26 departures that cost Troy 63.5 PPA overall. Will Crowder returns at quarterback, inheriting an offense that grades out 107th nationally at -3.2 points per game, while the defense sits more respectably at 76th.

JP+ projects just 0.6 wins for Troy in what appears to be a challenging slate, with Missouri and Utah State representing both the toughest and easiest games on the schedule. The Trojans' -4.5 overall rating (92nd nationally) reflects the massive roster turnover, with special teams contributing additional struggles at 112th in the country. If Crowder can develop chemistry quickly with an almost entirely new receiving corps and the defense maintains its relative strength, Troy could exceed those modest projections. If not, this looks like a rebuilding year in Troy, Alabama.