Mike Jacobs takes over a program that won eight games last season, and the job now is managing a roster that lost far more than it kept. Tucker Gleason returns as the starter, which should stabilize an offense that otherwise looks below average heading into fall camp. But the departures around him were significant — Kalieb Osborne left for UConn along with wideouts Ryder Treadway and Javon Brown, and the offense also said goodbye to Chip Trayanum, Junior Vandeross III, and Kenji Christian. Anthony Simpson arrives from Michigan and Corey Smith joins from Penn State, but the receiving corps and backfield both carry real uncertainty given how much production is gone. The defense, by contrast, profiles as roughly average, though that unit faces its own attrition up front, with edge pressure and coverage depth both thinner than a year ago after significant snaps and production walked out the door.

JP+ projects Toledo at 7.9 wins, a number that reflects a roster in transition more than a program in decline. The gap between that projection and any loftier market expectation traces directly to the offensive concentration risk — Toledo's returning production is thin at the skill positions, and offensive line continuity sits at just 63% with only 6% of targets back. Special teams remain a weak spot as well, adding another variable that could tilt close games in either direction. Toughest tests come at Michigan State, at Ohio, and home against San Diego State, while Sacramento State, UMass, and Central Connecticut represent the most favorable matchups on the slate. If Gleason finds quick chemistry with the new receivers and the front seven replacements hold up against the run, Toledo can match or exceed last year's win total. If the defensive front erodes faster than expected, this could be a step back toward the middle of the Mid-American pack.