JP+ One-Sheet

Toledo

Mid-American | 2026

Projected Wins

8.2

Team Thesis

Toledo Turns Page With Jacobs While Rebuilding a Depleted Front Seven. Mike Jacobs takes over a program that won eight games last season, and the job now is managing a roster that lost far more than it kept.

Model Profile

#97

JP+ Rank

#110

Offense

#70

Defense

-4.3

Overall

-3.7

Offense

+0.1

Defense

Why JP+ Is Higher

7.5

Market

8.2

JP+

7.5

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.7 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#110

Rated coverage55%

Candidate members85

Rated players47

Season Path

Soft landing

Bowl path97%

4-2 start67%

Collapse risk3%

67% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 97%. Collapse risk 3% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 96% to 62%.

Bull Case

10-2

If Gleason finds quick chemistry with the new receivers and the front seven replacements hold up against the run, Toledo can match or exceed las…

Bear Case

7-5

If the defensive front erodes faster than expected, this could be a step back toward the middle of the Mid-American pack.

Mid-American Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Toledo	8.2	7.5	7.5
Miami (OH)	7.5	7.5	8.4
Western Michigan	7.3	7.5	7.4
Ohio	6.5	6.5	7.0
Buffalo	6.3	--	7.0
Eastern Michigan	6.2	5.5	5.9
Central Michigan	6.2	6.5	5.7
Bowling Green	5.6	4.5	5.3