JP+ One-Sheet
Toledo
Mid-American | 2026
Projected Wins
7.9
Model Profile
#96
JP+ Rank
#113
Off Adj
#67
Def Adj
Overall
-4.6
Offense
-3.9
Defense
+0.1
Win Total Context
7.5
Market
7.9
JP+
6.8
SP+
Bowl Path95%
Fast Start61%
Collapse Risk5%
Path Shape
Soft landing
61% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 95%. Collapse risk 5% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 95% to 58%.
Mid-American Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 7.9 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Miami (OH) | 7.7 | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| Western Michigan | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.9 |
| Ohio | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
| Eastern Michigan | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Buffalo | 6.4 | 5.5 | 6.7 |
| Central Michigan | 6.2 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| Bowling Green | 5.8 | 4.5 | 5.8 |
| Akron | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| Kent State | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Ball State | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| Sacramento State | 3.6 | 5.5 | 3.9 |