Toledo

The Rockets face their first season under new head coach Mike Jacobs after Jason Candle's departure, with the transition complicated by an unusual portal trend that saw three impact players follow the same destination. Kalieb Osborne, Ryder Treadway, and Javon Brown all transferred to UConn, creating holes at quarterback and receiver that new arrivals like Anthony Simpson from Michigan and Corey Smith from Penn State will need to help fill. Tucker Gleason returns as the starting quarterback, anchoring an offense that grades out at 102nd nationally while the defense provides hope at 58th — a significant gap that explains Toledo's middling -2.7 overall rating despite last year's 8-4 record.

JP+ projects exactly 7.1 wins for Toledo, suggesting modest regression from their solid 2025 campaign as the coaching change and roster turnover create uncertainty. The Rockets lost 63.5 points of production through 38 departures while adding just 32 players who contributed negative value at their previous stops, creating depth concerns across multiple position groups. Road games against Michigan State and Sacramento State loom as potential season-defining tests, while home contests against UMass and Central Connecticut offer opportunities to build momentum. If Gleason develops chemistry quickly with his new receiving corps and the defense maintains its effectiveness, Toledo could surprise and push toward nine wins. If not, the transition year could mean a step back toward .500 football in the MAC.