Texas Tech spent the offseason building around a portal class that ranked among the best in the country, and the headline addition was supposed to be Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby, whose 176.2 PPA made him the crown jewel of the incoming group. That plan is out the window. Sorsby is unavailable this season due to an eligibility denial, leaving Will Hammond as the quarterback tasked with directing an offense that returns just 45% of its targets and saw Behren Morton, Caleb Douglas and Reggie Virgil all depart. The good news is everything else around him. EDGE Trey White anchors a defense that grades as elite in the qualitative profile, even with some front-seven attrition to account for, and the offense still added weapons like Kenny Johnson from Pitt and Malcolm Simmons from Auburn to soften the blow. Special teams grade top-tier as well, and after a 12-1 season, the roster still carries real momentum heading into another Big 12 title chase.

JP+ projects 10.7 wins out of 12, a figure that already bakes in the downgrade from losing Sorsby before he ever took a snap. The toughest tests come on the road at Cincinnati, Baylor and Oklahoma State, while home dates against Abilene Christian and Sam Houston, plus a trip to Oregon State, should be comfortable. The gap between that projection and public perception likely centers on how quickly Hammond settles into the job and whether the defensive front holds up despite some edge-pressure turnover. If Hammond plays like a steady game manager behind an offensive line that returns 71% of its snaps, this team pushes for the playoff again. If the quarterback transition proves rockier than expected, 10.7 wins could look optimistic by November.