Texas Tech

Texas Tech enters 2026 riding incredible recruiting momentum, with one of the top freshman classes in the country fueling expectations after a 12-1 season that established the Red Raiders as a legitimate Big 12 contender. The program's +23.0 JP+ rating slots them fourth nationally, anchored by a defense that grades second in the country at +15.6 points. Will Hammond takes over at quarterback following Behren Morton's departure, while the portal brought significant talent with Kenny Johnson (31.9 PPA from Pitt) and Malcolm Simmons (23.4 PPA from Auburn) bolstering a receiving corps that lost Price Morgan and Kelby Valsin. Edge rusher Trey White returns as the defensive centerpiece, though the Red Raiders face moderate continuity questions up front after losing key pass rushers.

JP+ projects 11.0 wins for Texas Tech, reflecting confidence that this defensive foundation can carry the load while Hammond settles into the starting role and the offense finds its rhythm around new weapons. The schedule features challenging road tests at Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, and Colorado, but the Red Raiders should handle business against Oregon State, Abilene Christian, and Sam Houston. If Hammond can manage the game effectively and the elite freshman class contributes immediately, Texas Tech has the defensive talent to compete for another Big 12 title and make noise in the playoff. If the quarterback transition stumbles or the pass rush can't replace departed production, they're still positioned for double-digit wins but may fall short of championship expectations.