JP+ One-Sheet
Texas Tech
Big 12 | 2026
Projected Wins
10.7Team Thesis
Texas Tech Enters 2026 Loaded With Talent, But Not With Its Planned Quarterback. Texas Tech spent the offseason building around a portal class that ranked among the best in the country, and the headline addition was supposed to be Cincinnati transfe…
Model Profile
#4
JP+ Rank
#41
Offense
#1
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
10.5
Market
10.7
JP+
10.6
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Early equity
66% to start 6-0 or better. Bowl path 100%. Collapse risk 2% (8 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.3 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk5: 99% to 85%.
Bull Case
12-0If Hammond plays like a steady game manager behind an offensive line that returns 71% of its snaps, this team pushes for the playoff again.
Bear Case
9-3If the quarterback transition proves rockier than expected, 10.7 wins could look optimistic by November.
Big 12 Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 10.7 | 10.5 | 10.6 |
| Utah | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| BYU | 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.8 |
| Kansas State | 7.4 | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| Arizona | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| UCF | 6.9 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Houston | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.4 |
| TCU | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.4 |