Texas Tech

The Red Raiders are riding incredible recruiting momentum with one of the top freshman classes in the country, building on a 12-1 campaign that established them as a legitimate Big 12 contender. Their +21.3 JP+ rating ranks fifth nationally, driven primarily by a defense that grades out second in the country at +15.2 points above average. The portal additions were transformative, headlined by Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby at quarterback (176.2 PPA), plus receivers Kenny Johnson from Pitt (31.9 PPA) and Malcolm Simmons from Auburn (23.4 PPA) to replace departed wideouts Price Morgan and Kelby Valsin. Edge rusher Trey White anchors a defense that carried the program last season and figures to do so again.

JP+ projects 10.4 wins for Texas Tech, reflecting both the talent influx and the foundation already in place from their breakout 2025 season. The offense ranks 22nd nationally at +5.6 points above average, a solid complement to that elite defense, though the quarterback position remains unsettled with Behren Morton's departure creating opportunity for the new signal-caller to emerge. Road trips to Cincinnati and Baylor loom as the toughest tests, while home games against Abilene Christian and Sam Houston should provide early confidence builders. If Sorsby seamlessly takes over the offense and that recruiting class contributes immediately, another Big 12 title and playoff victory are within reach. If the quarterback transition stalls or the defense regresses even slightly, they're still a 9-10 win team but fall short of championship expectations.